Sunday December 27, 2009 (2-5)

Broncos +7 @ Eagles W

Underdogs coming off a loss in which they were big favorites (vs. Raiders) are usually money.For instance the Seahawks lost as 7 point favorites to the Bucs last week and are now 14.5 point dogs to the Packers.  That is a 21 point line swing! The only reason why we aren’t jumping on that is because the Seahawks really are awful and could easily lose by 30.  This matchup poses a better shot at cashing in on this trend.  The Broncos are a very good team and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Eagles are so hot right now, but can lose this game and still make the playoffs.  It also seems whenever the Eagles get hot and backed big by the public they fail.  Examples:  The Eagles were 14 point favorites against the Jamarcus Russell led Raiders and lost.  They were also laying 3 at home against a struggling Cowboys team and lost.  Brian Dawkins will make a return to Philly and should be amped.  The Broncos need this game more than the Eagles and after a loss to a weak divisional foe we should get full effort from the Donkeys.

Ravens/Steelers OVER 41 W

Forecast calls for chance of snow showers on Sunday in the Steel City where these two divisional foes try to keep their respective playoff hopes alive.  The Ravens are coming in at 8-6 and are in control of their own destiny.  The Steelers need to win out and get some help with about 85 teams tied at 7-7 right now.  Baltimore won the first matchup at their house in a 20-17 in an OT slugfest that featured Dennis Dixon at QB for the Steelers.  Big Ben is back for this one fresh off his 500-yard passing game.  The Ravens meanwhile just steamrolled Detroit and Chicago by a combined score of 79-10 (no, seriously).  We think this one will be another competitive game with the offenses showcasing the talent and this one sailing over the total. 

Jaguars +8 @ Patriots L

The Pats have been good at home but we still don’t think they should be laying more than a TD.  We got a push with Buffalo last week but New England gave Buffalo every chance to cover that game.  The Pats defense looked solid, but their offense still seemed off.  The Pats need one more win and it probably will come here because the Jags are choke artists.  Regardless we think MJD and the gang can stay within a TD.  The Jags lost a tough one to Indy last Thursday and now have a week and a half to prepare for this one.  8 points is tough to cover, we’ll take the dog.

Bills +9 @ Falcons L

This line has the potential to get up into double digits come kickoff, so if you like it like we do, it may be a wise idea to wait until Sunday.  The Bills are looking at starting Brian Brohm from Louisville at QB for this one.  We think that's actually a good thing, considering the other schmucks haven't done all that much, why not give the young kid a look and see if he could be the future of the franchise.  The Bills have played tough football since Perry Fewell took over and we look for that to continue here.  The Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and we don't think they have much to play for here.  Yes, the NFL is a prideful league and no game is meaningless, but this looks likes a spot for the Falcons to be a little flat.

Giants -7 vs. Panthers L

Great spot here for the G-men.  They finally seemed to get back on track against the Skins (we missed that one), and the Panthers are coming off a big upset win over the Brett Favres.  The Panthers aren’t going to the playoffs and may be happy to call it a year after a nice upset victory.  The Giants meanwhile need to win out for a chance to make the playoffs.  They will be fully focused for this one and the Panthers may be willing to lay over.  One concern is the revenge factor as the Giants beat the Panthers late last year in OT to knock the Panthers down a seed.  That shouldn’t be a big concern though, we like the revamped Giants to unload and look forward to making a potential run.

Lions +12.5 @ 49ers L

Matthew Stafford just got put on IR and the Detroit QB has not been announced yet.  Daunte Culpepper has played fair but not great.  Drew Stanton played ok in relief of him last week and will likely get the start this week.  The Lions outscored the Cards 24-14 in the second half with Stanton directing the offense.  Throw in that double digit dogs were 3-1 ATS last week and we think that the Lions are severely undervalued here.  Grab the points.

Raiders +3.5 @ Browns L

The Browns win a couple in a row, one a primetime game against a division foe and another against the crappy Chiefs and now they deserve to be laying points?  Come on now!  The Raiders have been terrible after a win, but Charlie Frye is getting to play against the team that released him so they guy will be fired up.  On the flip side, the Browns will be without Brady Quinn and DA has been awful this year.  Oakland is 3-4 on the road, and the Browns are just 1-5 at home.  They were given a 48 hour extension to sell out or the game will be blacked out.  After 2 wins the Browns ay be fat and happy.  Rob Ryan coached the Raiders but that shouldn't help because his defense is plain vanilla.

Friday December 25, 2009 (0-1)

Titans -3 vs. Chargers L

Merry Christmas everybody!  Awesome game here with two of the hottest teams in the league.  The Chargers have won 9 games in a row and just clinched the AFC West last week.  They can clinch a first round bye with a win here so they should be somewhat motivated.  The Titans NEED this win and should be even more motivated.  The Titans are 7-1 since Vince Young took over with their only loss against the undefeated Peyton Mannings.  Couple that with a weeknight Christmas game and this looks like a ton of distractions for the Chargers.  Chris Johnson should run wild on the Titans D.  Philips Rivers will keep the Chargers in the game, but you gotta side with the more desperate home team on the weeknight.

Wednesday December 22, 2009 (1-0)

T-Wolves +3 @ Nets W

Why are the Nets favored?  They've won 2 games!!  They've only been favored a couple of times this year, one of them being against the Wolves, who won by 2 at home.  Both teams are extremely young and obviously will be lottery teams again.  The T-Wolves have been lively lately, beating Utah twice and Sacramento by 16.  The Nets just seem to get blown out every time they take the court as they're currently on a 7-game losing streak, each one by double digits.  The Nets will be without starting SF Chris Douglas-Roberts and the T-Wolves could be getting their own SF Ryan Gomes back for this one.  We'll continue to bet against the Nets.

Monday December 21, 2009 (0-1)

Redskins +3 vs. Giants L  We were spot on, the Skins came to play!  Not.

Do people still think the Giants are an elite team?  Apparently they do, because Vegas has made them 3 point favorites against an improving Redskins team.  Since Jim Zorn was relieved of his play calling duties the Skins Offense has improved and the team has been competitive in all of their games.  Heck they almost beat the Saints.  The Giants are just 3-3 on the road, play zero defense, and just lost a heartbreaker to the Eagles.  This game will mean more to the Skins.  The G-men have lost by at least 20 points their last two road trips.  The Redskins have no playoff hopes and will be looking to play spoiler and will lay it all out on the line in front of a national audience.  This game seems very similar to the Browns/Steelers Thursday night matchup.  We think the Skins win outright.

Sunday December 20, 2009 (1-3-1  WTF!)

        *Monster Play*

Seahawks -6.5 vs. Buccaneers L

The Seahawks suck, but the Bucs suck harder.  The Bucs will go balls deep.  After I praised Josh Freeman and claimed that he was much better than Jamarcus Russell (he was compared to Shamu Russell during the draft), he has played exactly like Jamarcus.  INT after INT in the red zone.  Its too bad because the Bucs defense has really improved.  The Seahawks defense continues to be terrible on the road, but at home against poor teams is another story.  Hasselback is 4-1 ATS at home, and the Bucs are a lowly 4-26 SU on the West Coast.  This is a down spot for the Bucs, and a must win (for pride) for the Hawks.  Lay it out, and the Bucs will suck it.

Bengals +7 @ Chargers W

We might have been a week early with our Bengals pick, since they lost by 20 last week in Minny.  That game could have been closer as Mega Douche should have had at least two other picks and for some reason Carson Palmer turned into Brady Quinn with his 3-yard passes.  The Bengals have been very good on the road this year and also very good as underdogs (6-1 ATS).  The Chargers are red hot, but we think that a weakness of theirs is going up against tough physical teams that control the ball and grind out games, which has been the Bengals identity this year.  We saw earlier in the year when the Bengals rallied around each other following the death of D-Coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife with a win at Baltimore as you guessed it...underdogs.  This time around it's a fallen teammate that they'll be playing for and we'd be shocked if they don't rally around each other and put forth their best effort for Chris Henry.

Cardinals -12 @ Lions L

After the debacle at San Fran the Cardinals now need to travel to the Motor City.  With 2 wins over the next 3 weeks the Cardinals can guarantee themselves a playoff spot.  If they take it lightly like last year and lose, the Niners could steal the division.  After the wakeup call in San Fran we look for the Cardinals to focus and not mess around.  The Lions will be without Stafford and Kevin Smith.  Their gameplan will consist of Daunte throwing the ball up to Calvin Johnson.  It may work once or twice, but should most likely result in Cardinal INTs.  Cardinals have been impressive on the road...versus the awful Lions we expect a throttling.

49ers +8.5 @ Eagles L

The Niners absolutely dominated the Cardinals on Monday Night Football.  They know that they have to win out and get help in order to qualify for the playoffs, which makes that hail mary from Mega Douche earlier in the year hurt even more.  The defense was a turnover machine, forcing 7 turnovers and limiting the Cardinals to just 10 points.  The Eagles may not be taking them entirely too seriously this week, especially since they just came off a big win against the Giants and are playing the Broncos next week.  Assuming the Niners pound the ball with Frank Gore and spread the field when necessary to get the ball to Crabtree and VD, they could surprise the Eagles here.  West Coast teams traveling east to play the early game aren't usually good to bet on, but San Fran has been profitable under Mike Singletary in this situation (2-0 ATS).  We like some dogs this week considering Vegas lost a ton of money last week with a bunch of favorites covering. 

Bills +7 vs. New England P

Since Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB and Perry at Head Coach, the Bills offense has greatly improved.  The Bills defense has been opportunistic all season.  Byrd should be the rookie defensive player of the year.  The Pats have been AWFUL on the road, so why are they touchdown favorites?  Do the Pats have the more seasoned coach and better players?  Yes.  Better track record?  Yes.  This is the only reason why they are favored by this much.  Vegas knows people will continue to back the Pats blindly.  The Bills are not that bad and could pull an upset here.  The Pats should have dominated the Panthers last week yet they let Matt Moore cover the spread.  Take the home dog.

Saturday December 19, 2009 (1-0)

Cowboys +7.5 @ Saints W

It's almost like we enjoy making ourselves miserable betting against good teams, because the good teams have screwed us recently (see:  Colts and Manning, Peyton).  For some reason,  it seems like everyone is penciling in a W for the Saints against the Cowgirls.  Well, after the Colts win this week, they became the 3rd team in the history of the NFL to go 14-0.  This is due in large part to the fact that the NFL is difficult to win on a week in week out basis, and to keep that up for almost an entire season is nearly impossible.  The Girls have lost two in a row and could officially be in desperation mode.  Tony Homo should have some success against a Saints secondary that is without their two starting corners, especially considering Jason Campbell and Chris Redman looked like Pro Bowl QBs the past two weeks against them.  The Saints are extremely tough at home, so we hate to bet against them, but there seems to be something a bit odd about this one.  The only other time the Girls have been a Dog this year came as a 3-point dog in Philly which they won outright.  Take the points.

Friday December 18, 2009 (1-1)

Cal State Northridge -3 vs. Drexel L

Drexel likes to play slow and play tough defense.  Northridge likes to run and play little defense.  So who sets the tempo?  Generally the home team, especially when the road team is traveling across 3 time zones.  We like Northridge to stay undefeated at home in this non conference mathcup.

Hawks -6.5 vs. Jazz W

Hotlanta is so hot right now.  This team is 11-2 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in December, and 10-3 ATS at home.  The Jazz have not shown up in some road games, although they seem to be improving now that they are at full health.  Regardless, we cannot see how you can bet against the Hawks right now.  Lets ride this team until we sense the tumble.

Thursday December 17, 2009 (0-1) When it rains it pours.

Nevada -18 vs. Eastern Washington L

I never thought we would say you are getting good value at -18, but you are here.  Eastern Washington is god awful.  3 of their 4 wins were against IAA schools, so they get no credit there.  Their losses have come by 23, 22, 13, 6, and 6.  The 6 point losses were in state games.  Nevada is a very good team, quite possibly the best 4-4 team in the country.  Nevada’s 4 losses have come on the road against Pacific, UNLV, North Carolina, and VCU.  They are undefeated at home, and should be able to run away with this one.  Luke Babbitt and company will push the ball and score somewhere close to 100.  EWU has no chance here.

Wednesday December 16, 2009 (1-2)

Jazz -8 @ Nets W

The Jazz just lost to the T-Wolves for the second time in two weeks after it seemed like they had turned a corner with wins over Orlando and the Lakers.  We look for a good bounce back effort here to kick off the road trip.  Coming off a loss this year, the Jazz are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five.  The Nets have lost 3 in a row by an average of 24 ppg.  There's a clear difference in talent between these teams.  Lay the points.

Oregon State -2 @ Illinois Chicago L

This line seems short.  Maybe its a trap, but we’re falling for it.  Illinois Chicago is a 1-6 team that hasn’t played any special teams.  Oregon State, led by Michelle Obamas brother, plays a real slow down style that Ill Chi-town may not be used to.  Should be a slow, boring, low scoring game.  Although the Flames will be excited to play their first home game since 11/23, the Beavers are more talented and have played much tougher competition thus far.  Further, the Flames could be without their starting center due to a suspension. 

South Alabama -3.5 vs. Arkansas Little Rock L (1/2 point loss!)

Arkansas Little Rock is winless on the road and South Alabama, one of the better teams in the Sun Belt are 4-1 at home.  The jags play smothering defense, and should be able to control this one.  UALR beat the Jags last year in Alabama so we could see a revenge factor here.  Lay ‘em.

Monday December 14, 2009 (0-1)

New Orleans -3 vs. Florida Atlantic L

New Orleans was picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference, however at 5-3 (4-0) at home, they have proven to be much better than expected.  FAU is a similar team at 4-4, but have played weaker competition.  FAU also starts 4 freshman, and thats why we’re taking the Prviateers.

Sunday December 13, 2009 (1-3)  This is a terrible slump

        *Monster Play*

Bengals +7 @ Vikings L

Why in the world are the 9-3 Bengals 7 point dogs against anyone?  Big step up in class here for the Bengals who have played the Lions, Browns, and Raiders as of late.  However, lets take a look at the mighty Vikings schedule.  Throw out their wins against the Packers which don’t count in our mind (Brett Favre’s SuperBowls) and the best team they have beat are the 6-6 Ravens.  Very soft schedule and that showed Monday night as the Vikes got bumrushed by the Cards.  We don’t expect AP and Mega-Douche to do that bad again, but we do expect the Bengals to keep them in check.  The Bengals are tough and may have Cedric Benson back.  The Bengals are 4-1 on the road and need a win to grab control of the #2 seed.  We love this pick.

Broncos +7 @ Colts L

Yes, we are betting against Peyton Manning again.  And no, we haven't learned our lesson yet.  We think that the Broncos can keep this one close for a couple of reasons.  The Broncos have an excellent secondary with Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins et al who should be able to keep Indy under control.  Second, the Broncos have a good running game with Buckhalter and Moreno as a nice 1-2 punch.  Indy has struggled against good running teams. We also think that this game means a lot more to the Broncos than the Colts.  Indy basically has the #1 sewn up already (3 games up with 4 to go), while Denver is still fighting for a division crown.  If Denver can control the clock like the Dolphins did against Indy, then a spread cover shouldn't be a problem.

Raiders +1 vs. Redskins L   F*** you Jamarcus!

Let me get this straight, the Redskins are 0-6 on the road, just lost their Super Bowl to the Saints in heartbreaking fashion, have to travel 3,000 miles after that loss, and are FAVORED?  Say whaaaat?  Don’t get us wrong, the Raiders have stunk after a win and suck as a favorite, which +1 is not too far away from being a fav.  Regardless we do not know how the Skins can get up for this game.  In addition the Skins have the Giants coming to town on Monday night Week 15.  This situation is terrible for the Skins!  You must take advantage of a situation like this, even if you have to back an iffy team.  Bruce Gradkowski is now 2-1 as a starter and we’re confident enough in him to grab the single digit.  The Raiders returned to practice this week with the following sign in the locker room ““Sunday, 12-13-09, 1:05 p.m., the day the Oakland Raiders break thru, back-to-back wins set Raiders on path to future success (if you believe it, it will happen)!”.  Kind of corny, but regardless it shows the Raiders staff are fired up to get 2 wins in a row for the first time since the end of last season.

Packers -3 @ Bears W

Bears suck.  Packers are good.  It's as simple as that.  Jay Cutler is a turnover machine and all Aaron Rodgers does is throw touchdown passes.  The Bears defense is nothing without Brian Urlacher.  The Packer D has played extremely well the last couple of weeks.  This is a divisional game that is always tough for each team.  We think this will be a physical game that is won in the trenches.  The Pack has the edge there and should keep the momentum going this week against the Bears.

Thursday December 10, 2009 (1-0)

Syracuse +1 @ Florida W

This game is being played in Tampa as part of the Big East - SEC Invitational.  Both teams come in undefeated, but we would tend to say that Syracuse has been more impressive.  The Big East tournament and Big Dance last year certainly helped this team with big game preparation and execution.  They are big and skilled and have won their games this year by an average of nearly 30 points.  They've played all but one of their games on the road/neutral sites, so they're certainly road tested, including a 16-point win at Chapel Hill.  Their 2-3 zone defense has also held opponents to 35% shooting on the year.  We like the Orange here.

Wednesday December 9, 2009 (1-1)

Washington State -4.5 vs. Idaho W

After 5 straight road/neutral site games, the Cougars get to head home and play the Vandals.  The Vandals have been pretty impressive thus far, but we gotta back the home team coming off back to back road losses against solid opponents (Kansas State and Gonzaga).  Expect maximum effort from the Cougars.

Pacific +7.5 vs. California L

Pacific is a good team.  Very good team.  At 7-1, with wins over San Diego State and Nevada, whose to say they can’t upset a Pac-10 opponent?  Cal has had a tough schedule with road losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, and New Mexico.  Still, we’ll take the home dog looking for an impressive win versus an in-state rival...And this is already slated as the largest home crowd at a Pacific game with 7,500 tickets sold.  Crazy drunk college kids always help out.

Tuesday December 8, 2009 (2-1)

TCU +1 vs. Texas Tech L

Little in-state rivalry here as the 8-0 Red Raiders travel to TCU.  The Hornfrogs are 3-1 at home and are a very underrated team in an underrated conference.  Go Mountain West!  The Red Raiders are off to their best start in 80 years, but will be coming in cocky after an OT thrilling upset versus Washington.  Tech has only played one true road game, and it was a 2 point victory over SF Austin State.  In their second home game of the year, we expect them to go down to the mighty Hornfrogs. Ribbit.

George Mason +2.5 vs. Dayton W

We like home underdogs and think this is a solid spot for George Mason.  After 3 straight road games George Mason returns home to face a highly touted Dayton team.  The Flyers are stacked, but Mason is no chump.  Mason has had losses to Villanova and Georgia Tech by just 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Dayton has only two losses, to Villanova and Kansas State.  Two really solid small school teams here with similar stats.  We’ll take the home team in a game that looks to be more important to them.

Evansville +14.5 @ Western Kentucky W

Our obscure college basketball pick of the day goes to the Evansville Purple Aces!  Mostly because of their awesomely gay name.  But seriously, we don’t think the Hilltoppers are 14 points better than this team.  Evansville plays solid defense, which usually travels well.  Besides a blowout loss at Miami of Ohio, Evansville has won all but one of their games.  Their other loss, a 4 point near upset to Butler.  WKU’s three home games have resulted in a 1 point loss (Indiana State), a 1 point win (CS-Northridge), and a 14 point win (Tulane).  Not sure why they’re favored by over 14 here.

Monday December 7, 2009  (2-0)

Packers -3 vs. Ravens W

The Packers have quietly turned their season around after some heartbreaking losses to Mega Douche.  Their offensive line woes have been fixed and with time Rodgers has exploded.  Defensively this team has really impressed as well, holding the Cowgirls to just 7, and the Lions to 12.  They did give up 24 to the Niners, however most of those points came in garbage time when they were up big.  Both teams need this win, but the Ravens REALLY do.  Still, we don’t care because Flacco has fizzled after a hot start.  If it wasn’t for some ridiculous moves by Ray Rice, the Ravens would have lost at home to the Steelers with Dennis Dixon at QB.  Unacceptable.  We have documented in past picks that the Ravens defense is not what it used to be.  Ride the hot team and fade the struggling team.  MNF, Packers win.....if Mike Ditka (12-0) picks the Ravens to win we may have to change this =p

Jazz -2 vs. Spurs W

The Spurs are just 1-4 on the road this year and have played their last 9 games in the state of Texas.  Now they have to travel to Mormon land to face a Jazz team that will be fired up to get rid of the nasty taste of losing to the Timberwolves.  The Jazz were embarrassed and the quotes we’ve been reading point to them being pretty motivated for this one.  This is a big game for the Spurs too but we think the situation favors the jazz much more.  The Jazz may also get Kyle Korver back for this one.  Makin’ it rain!

Sunday December 6, 2009 (0-4)

            *Monster Play*

Titans +7 @ Colts L

Dare we bet against Indy again?  They screwed us against the Texans last week, but the Titans close games better than the Texans.  So we heard it's been a while since the Colts have lost a game, something like 20 games or whatever.  No big deal.  They've had their hands full the last few weeks, and we think they'll have their hands full again this week.  The Titans are red hot too and Vince Young/Chris Johnson combo will move the ball at will on this D, who could be without Dwight Freeney again.  All Vince Young does is win games, so we think 7 points is a gift.

Buccaneers +5.5 @ Panthers L

The Bucs are also “red hot”....haha, they are not winning games but seriously this team is underrated.  Since Josh Freeman took over this team has been a covering machine.  They lost to the Panther by just 7 back in October without Freeman in the lineup.  The Panthers will be without Jake Delhomme, which is actually a bad thing for the Bucs.  We’ll bet doughnuts to dollars that Matt Moore plays better than Jake the Turnover.  That being said with a young QB in the Panthers will have a conservative game plan.  The Panthers have lost 2 of their last 3 at home, and we smell a potential upset here.  Don’t be fooled by the 0-5 road record of Tampa, they almost beat the Falcons in Atlanta last week.  Sidenote:  Josh Freeman was labeled a cheap mans Jamarcus Russell.  If that were true he would be the worst QB ever.

Patriots -4 @ Dolphins L

The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS after a loss this year with wins by 16, 17, and 59.  All three of those games were at home and the Patriots haven't played all that well on the road this year with the only win coming in England.  The Dolphins also traditionally give the Pats trouble in a heated rivalry.  Hence, the short point spread.  We think the right side is the Patriots here coming off the embarrassing loss on Monday night to the Saints.  It will be about executing the game plan and taking care of business.  Lay the points.

Seahawks/49ers OVER 41 L

At a pick ‘em price we REALLY wanted to take the Seahawks who have been great at home over the years.  However, we still don’t trust their defense who before the Rams game last week has given up 35, 31, 20, and 38 points.  At home the Hawks should be able to finally score since the Niners have struggled a bit against passing teams.  The 49er players have been asking their coaches to implement a spread offense to better utilize Alex Smiths skill set.  They have listened and apparently this week they will utilize even more of a spread attack.  That means lots of clock stoppage and lots of throwing.  This one could sail over.

Recap:  We really got some bad beats here.  Technically when you make a pick you automatically have a 50/50 chance.  Therefore you could have picked games from a hat and got more winners than we did today.  lets start off with the Titans who lost by 10 points, missing the cover by a field goal.  They had several chances in the 2nd half to score TDs and they failed every single 4th down.  Just to f us they decided not to kick field goals, which would have made us some $$.  The Bucs!  After Josh Freeman had 2 red zone INTS, they get a first and goal at the 4 situation (3rd quarter).  So what do they do?  Throw the ball....INT in the end zone!  And just to make things feel great he ruined a legitimate back door cover chance with a fifth INT to end the game.  Bucs defense played great, but we lose the cover by 4.5 points....oh yeah, they missed 2 makable field goals too.  The Patriots!  After jumping up 14 they decided to take a nap.  This game was similar to the Denver game where they dominated the first half and fell apart in the 4th.  Pathetic.  Seahawks and 49ers!  Lets score 28 first half points and then only 9 in the second!  Sound like a plan?  Okay!  Wow.....bad beats are generally followed by good beats.  We will fight on!

Saturday December 5, 2009 (2-2)

No 3-8 team should ever be favored by 24 points, regardless of who they're playing.  SJ St. is 2-9 SU and ATS, but taking a closer look, their last 3 road games have been a half point cover loss and two 2-point cover losses.  We're not saying they'll win, or even be all that competitive.  We're just saying that 24 points is too many to lay with LA Tech.

Alabama +5.5 vs. Florida W

This game will be like a national championship.  In fact, we may have the top 2 teams in the nation right here.  Florida has not covered point spreads this year, mainly because they are a publicly backed team and their lines are inflated.  We think this line is inflated too, but only by 2 points or so.  Neutral site, two top coaches, and the top two defenses in the league.  This game will be a slugfest!  Yes Alabama struggled against Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU, but these were rivalry games and Bama had the target on their backs.  Florida has struggled against Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina.  South Carolina was in that game until the middle of the 4th when they had a turnover.  God will be on Tebow's side, but hopefully God is nice and only lets Tebow win by 3.

Nebraska +14 vs. Texas W

Admittedly, part of us wants to see Texas fail epically here, screwing up the BCS and allowing the Horned Frogs or Bearcats to sneak into the BCS Championship game.  The Huskers allow just 11 ppg and are led by potential Heisman candidate Ndamukong Suh.  The Longhorns have their own Heisman candidate in Colt McCoy (what a sweet name for QB, by the way), and they've been able to roll over pretty much everybody.  Big 12 championship will be played at Cowboys Stadium so there should be an edge for Texas.  As an underdog this year, Nebraska is 2-0 ATS.

Hawaii +12 vs. Wisconsin L

Hawaii cannot stop the run so Wiscky's big offensive line and big John Clay should have a field day on the ground.  With that being said, Wisconsin has not shown up against good passing teams.  In their last two road games they've let up 687 passing yards (Indiana, Northwestern).  The Badgers are 8-3, and are coming off a disappointing loss @ Northwestern.  Now tell us how do they get up after that and go play Hawaii, eleventeen time zones away?  After Hawaii lost their starting QB they lost 6 straight.  It took awhile for Sophomore QB Bryant Moniz to take control but it has paid off with four straight victories, including a solid win vs. Navy.  If Hawaii can win their last home game they will earn a spot to the Hawaii Bowl.  Enter the Badgers who have nothing to play for.  Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, but can they match points with an explosive passing offense?  Dare we say Hawaii upsets the ranked Badgers on senior night?  Stay tuned.

Friday December 4, 2009 (0-1)

Both teams are struggling right now.  The Pistons are really hurting right now as they've lost 8 of 9 and haven't been all that competitive in those games.  The Bucks have lost 5 of 6 but three of those losses have come by 3 or less (@ WASH, @ NO, vs. Magic at home).  Brandon Jennings is the early rookie of the year favorite and has this Bucks team playing well.  Charlie Villaneuva gets to face his former team but we think that his former team is better than his current team.  These two teams played in Milwaukee earlier this year.  The Bucks opened up as a 2-point favorite and won by 11.  And now they're 3.5 point dogs?  Really?  Seems a little easy, but we'll bite.  Take the Bucks.

Thursday December 3, 2009 (2-1)

If you've followed our picks at all, you should know that we love backing home dogs under the lights on a weeknight.  There is something about the fans and the situation that seems to bring the best out of the home guys.  Plus we think that Buffalo is the better team right now.  Since Perry Fewell took over, he made a change at QB with Fitzpatrick over Edwards and at RB with Fred Jackson over Marshawn Lynch.  Again, if you've followed us at all, you know that we like Jackson better than Lynch (see original fantasy ratings and Nick's first rant on TO).  Last week during the Bills/Phins game, the announcers were saying how Tony Sporano had a bunch of respect for Fewell since they coached together at Jacksonville.  Well we respect Sporano, who respects Fewell, so we therefore respect Fewell.  He'll have his boys ready for this divisional match-up.  Since starting the year as some hot shit, Mark Sanchez has played like a rookie.  The opportunistic Bills secondary (2nd in the NFL in INT) will take advantage of his inexperience.

Hey look another home underdog on a weeknight.  This game means EVERYTHING to Western Kentucky and NOTHING to Arkansas State.  WKU has had a real tough time with their transition to Div. IA, but their last few games they have fought hard.  In fact they have covered their last 3 games and everything we have read indicates they really want this win for their head coach.  The players are fighting hard and truly respect their coach.  Ark State is 3-8 so what does this game mean to them?  It means the season will soon be over!  For an 0-11 team it means one last chance to pull out a win.  We may go crazy and grab the moneyline on this one.

Cal State Northridge PICK vs. Idaho  NCAA BB W

We have liked the Matadors since last year's Big West tourney.  They are not afraid of anybody and play in your face basketball.  Here's a quote from the coach: "We have four things we press our guys on every game -- holding our opponent to 40 percent or below, averaging 30-35 deflections a game, which has to do with how we're pressuring the ball; protecting the paint, because percentages go way down when people are shooting outside; and out-rebounding our opponents."  When these teams played last year, the Vandals won by just 3 at their place despite shooting 68%!  The Matadors will get after it in this game and exact some revenge in the process.  They are thugs, and we like that in basketball players.

Wednesday December 2, 2009 (1-1)

Louisiana Tech -5 @ UL-Monroe  NCAA BB L

If you follow us you know we love Louisiana Tech.  This team has some great athletes and although UL Monroe is undefeated at home and returns all 5 starters from last year, they just aren’t the same caliber of LA Tech.  LA Tech is 5-1 and has played all but one of their games on the road (most neutral sites).  They are coming off a very impressive win at TCU and theres no reason to believe they won’t continue that here.  They played this same UL Monroe team last year and beat em by 12.  UL Monroes home wins have come against crap teams so don’t be fooled.  Short road trip, big win.  Lay the points, and in case you forgot LA Tech has a player named Magnum Rolle.  Bad ass!

Missouri State PICK @ Arkansas Little Rock  NCAA BB W

First road game of the season for the 5-0 Bears, and we expect them to stay undefeated.  Arkansas Little Rock is 3-0 at home, but take a closer look:  1 was against a 1AA opponent, 1 was against a winless Cal Poly Slo team, and the other was against half decent Oral Roberts.  We like Missouri State because they have a star in the making (Kyle Weems) and have strong wins over Tulsa and Auburn.  The Missouri Valley Conference is superior to the Sun Belt.  Small price for a better opponent.  Yes this is their first road test, but is Little Rock a scary place to play?  Didn’t think so.