Sunday January 22, 2012

Ravens +7 @ Patriots (Win)

The Ravens aren’t as bad as they looked last week and the Pats aren’t as great as they looked last week.  Cam Cameron SHOULD pound the rock with Ray Rice and I expect the Ravens D to step it up a notch from last week. 

Niners -2.5 vs. Giants (Loss)

Nobody believed in the Niners Week 1, Week 8, Week 17, and now the playoffs.  Get real people, they are the 2 seed, 13-3 in the regular season and 8-0 ATS at home.  Alex Smith is on a 16-0-1 ATS run at home.  Ridiculous.  We called the upset over the Saints and now everyone is jumping the Giants bandwagon.  This one will be close, so we’ll take the home team.

Sunday January 15, 2012

Two team 6.5 point teaser: (Loss)

Ravens -1

Packers -1

Saturday January 14, 2012

*Monster Play*

Niners +3.5 vs. Saints (Win)

Broncos +13.5 @ Patriots (Loss)

Sunday January 1, 2012

Dolphins -2 vs. Jets (Push)

Patriots -10.5 vs. Bills (Win)

Chiefs +3 @ Broncos (Win)

Texans +3 vs. Titans (Win)

Cowboys +3 @ Giants (Loss)

Panthers +8 @ Saints (Loss)

Raiders -3 vs. Chargers (Loss)

Saturday December 24, 2011

Jaguars +7.5 @ Titans (Win)

Packers -12 vs. Bears (Win)

Falcons +7 @ Saints (Loss)

Vikings +6.5 @ Redskins (Win)

Chargers +3 @ Lions (Loss)

Seahawks +2.5 vs. Niners (Win)

Thursday December 22, 2011

Texans -6 @ Colts (Loss)

Hate going against the home team on TNF, but its the Colts.  We’re not scared.  After winning their first game they probably are still partying.  The Texans come off their first loss under TJ Yates and lost their #1 seed.  We fully expect them to bounce back, even without Wade Phillips once again.  Statistically the Texans are dominate in ever facet compared to the Colts.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate will dominate this small Colts D.  Colts: 1-15 at the end of the year, Luck is a lock.

Sunday December 18, 2011

Raiders +1 vs. Lions (Push)

Seahawks +3.5 @ Bears (Win)

Patriots -7.5 @ Broncos (Win)

Packers -13.5 @ Chiefs (Loss)

Chargers +2.5 vs. Ravens (Win)

Sunday December 11, 2011

Raiders +11.5 @ Packers (Loss)

We took a shot with Oakland last week knowing it was a trap game.  This spot looks great.  Desperation mode for the Raiders who need a win to keep with Denver.  After winning 3 straight they lose big in Miami and the sky is falling.  OMG, the Raiders cannot get into the playoffs.  Blah blah blah, we hear this every week in the NFL.  Don’t jump off a bridge.  You’re getting a great ATS team in need of a win with fantastic value.  Yes they have play makers out but just look at Hue Jax’ press briefings this week, he has this team motivated.  GB is clearly the best team in the league but they are sitting happy at 12-0.  They are just 3-4 ATS when giving up 7 or more and are coming off an emotional victory in NY.  The Raiders will pound Bush like they did @ San Diego and stay within this number.  Packers D is overrated.  Game pushed back to 1pm EST which enhances road teams chance.

Titans +3.5 vs. Saints (Loss)

Watch out this Titans D is looking like they did in the beginning of the season and CJ2K is on fire.  Their D coordinator told the D to strike fear into their opponents that they must do that here against a high powered New Orleans offense.  Public is all over NO after seeing them dominate two weeks in a row.  Too bad those were at home.  The Saints have lost on the road to Tampa Bay and St. Louis, two awful teams. They are also just 1-3 ATS in outdoor games.  The Titans have a legit shot at a Wildcard spot so plenty of motivation here. 

Texans +3 @ Bengals (Win)

The Bengals are on a free fall and Dalton is banged up; he may have hit the rookie wall.  We love this Texans team, fantastic defense and the best rush offense in the league.  Who cares who plays QB, we’re getting 3 points with the best D in the league who needs a win to stay in first.

Giants +4.5 @ Cowboys (Win)

Eli Manning is playing well, yet the team has lost 4 straight.  Again, desperation mode here and what a game to get back into the playoff race?  The Giants are 4-2 vs. the Boys when Romo and Eli play.  The Boys are not good in December and seem to fall in the spotlight in recent years.  See Week 7 in Philadelphia.  Giants need this more and the teams are fairly equal.  The Boys get Miles Austin back, but not much of an upgrade over the hot Laurent Robinson.

Thursday December 8, 2011

Steelers -14 vs. Browns (Loss)

You have to take the home team on the short week as along as they are good.  The Steelers are on a nice roll and their passing game is becoming explosive.  The Browns are still the Browns despite some flashes here and there.  Hillis is back but he’s a bum.  Greg Little is becoming a weapon but Captain Checkdown McCoy can’t get him the ball the way he should.  Since losing Joe Haden the Browns have become a liability in the passing game as well.  Too many weapons to defend here, I’ll lay the points.

Sunday December 4, 2011

Texans +2.5 vs. Atlanta (Win)

Leinart out, enter QB3 TJ Yates.  To be honest the team may be better with Yates.  Yates played well at UNC and we thought he went a bit low int he draft last year.  This Houston defense is good enough to stop any NFL team and the Houston run game is the most dominant in the league.  Yates really doesn’t have to do much, and he has Andre Johnson back.  We get huge line value here with a home dog.  Atlanta struggles on the road; look for the roof to be open....Matt Ryan doesn’t like the elements.

Bears -7 vs. Chiefs (Loss)

The Bears will look to rebound after their first loss in 6 weeks with an easy home game matchup.  Hanie sucked in Oakland so look for the Bears to turn to Forte and Barber in a big way.  The Chiefs can’t do anything with Palko at QB and a bunch of slow, aged RBs.  They will put up a fight early, but every part of this Bears team is better than KC, including their crappy Colorado State QB.

Raiders +3 @ Miami (Loss)

Oh Rolando, you are an idiot.  Regardless, the Raiders are on a roll right now and truly believing in their coach and teammates.  They are 4-1 on the road this season and have an extremely balanced offense.  Injuries are holding this team back from being great.  Miami is 3-1 since an 0-7 start but they still don’t deserve to be favorites against many teams.  Oakland needs this win to stay alive and Miami just wants the win for pride.  Teams going nowhere tend to fight hard until they get down and they start to feel unlucky.  Miami is a team that can be thrown on and Bush can run on anyone.  The Dolphins offense doesn’t scare us too much, Brandon Marshall will dissapear under Stanford Routt’s cloak.  Love the points.

Bengals +7 @ Pittsburgh (Loss)

Andy Dalton is on fire and AJ Green is healthy.  The Bengals have been great road dogs under Marvin Lewis and need this win bad to get a wildcard spot!  The Bengals have a top 5 rush defense; however injuries in the secondary have hurt their pass D.  Still, I like this team to stay within reach against broken thumb Ben.

Sunday November 27, 2011

Texans -3 @ Jaguars (Win)

The Texans defense is fantastic, so we’ll take a shot, even with Leinart.  Gabbert can’t beat the Browns;  the Texans will contain MJD and force him to throw. They had a bye week to implement him which will really help and Leinart has something to prove.  He asked for a starting gig a couple years ago and nows his chance.  Jags aren’t going anywhere so this means more to Houston.

Broncos +6.5 @ Chargers (Win)

You’ll have God on your side here.  But seriously, how is San Diego still getting respect?  Denver is 4-1 in their last five and have beaten solid teams.  Their defense has been top 10 and Von Miller is hitting his stride.  Rivers is a mess and Norv Turner was never a head coach.  Don’t over think this one.

Raiders -4.5 vs. Bears (Win)

Fuck it, we’ll be at this game.  It can be a bad idea taking a strong defensive team  just starting a backup but this situation feels different.  The Bears have won 5 straight, so they are due.  They head on the road after multiple home games, and the team is searching for a new QB; distractions!  Remember when the Raiders picked up Palmer?  If the Bears get Kyle Orton (this is written Tuesday), the media attention will be through the roof.  Bears come in distracted and get their asses kicked.

Thursday THANKSGIVING!

Lions +6.5 vs. Packers (Loss)

Merry Thanksgiving!  This is certainly the Packers most vulnerable spot and the Lions best opportunity to shake the Thanksgiving curse.  They ALWAYS lose, but they also haven’t had a healthy team.  The Packers will be on the road on a short week and their defense has had issues lately.  Lions need to get a lead if they want to win this one because playing catch up against Rodgers won’t work.  We expect a pumped up crowd and Suh and Co. to pressure Rodgers all day.

Cowboys -7 vs. Dolphins (Loss)

The Dolphins have been a great story the last 3 weeks but as we’ve found out they have played some pretty sub-par teams.  The Boys are also on a roll and taking an overtime game over a division rival may be the final confidence booster this weak-minded team needed.  The Boys are ridiculous on Thanksgiving, just look it up.  They win by double digits more often than not.  Reggie Bush won’t be able to get rolling against the Dallas D at home so its up to the surprising Matt Moore.  We’ll take Romo at home on the short week.

Niners/Ravens UNDER 38.5 (Win)

This should be a very physical game against two of the top defenses in the league.  We’re tempted to take the +3 with SF but they are due for a down game.  The Niners are 9-0-1 ATS and have been dominated on the defensive side.  Ray Lewis hopes to play.

Sunday November 20, 2011

Panthers +7 @ Lions

The Lions have lost three of their last four and appear to be a bit arrogant.  After a beat down in Chicago we expect maximum effort here, but the team has really struggled since Best went down.  Morris can’t run the ball so taking advantage of Carolina’s pathetic Run D likely won’t happen.  Stafford is forcing passes and has a fractured finger.  The Panthers also look to get a bitter taste from their mouth after the big loss vs. Tennessee.  That game can be chalked up to the post bye struggles we’ve seen from many teams.  The Lions have a strong pass rush, but Newton can neutralize that.  Check out the rush and pass yardage and the Lions D is almost as bad as the Panthers so don’t be fooled by the Suh mystique.  Panthers keep it close.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens

The Bengals have a top 3 defense and the Ravens D is feast or fathom.  Flacco is frustrating as he looks good one week and like a college player another week.  I’m just not convinced the Ravens are what people think they are.  Couple my thoughts with comparable stats between the two teams and Ray Lewis being out and I love the points.  AJ Green looks to be out as well so look for a bigger role from now healthy Jermaine Gresham.  As a dog the Bengals are 4-1 Straight up all on the road.  Look at their previous matchups and these games are all relatively close.  Too many points here.

Bears -3.5 vs. Chargers

Please tell me how the Bears are only a half point better than the Chargers on a neutral field?  This line is sooo fishy but we can’t pass it up the way the Bears are playing now.  Cutler is playing great and Martz is utilizing Forte perfectly.  The Chargers have lost 4 straight and Phillip Rivers cannot clear his head.  It sounds like he is doubting himself and rumor is his 6 kids are impacting his play.  Cutler doesn’t have kids because women don’t want to sleep with him.  We have to take the home team here and bet against the Bears next week on the road after winning five straight.

Bills +2 @ Dolphins

Look at Miami winning two in a row.  Fancy!  Miami has beaten two bad teams in bad spots the last two weeks.  Chiefs coming off a big OT win and Skins with a new QB.  Buffalo has looked pathetic in two straight losses, but against much better teams than KC/WAS.  Are the Bills done?  Maybe, but we like to think their early season success wasn’t all luck.  With the Jets losing they have a big opportunity to move up on the wildcard and AFC-East races.  The Dolphins have never been good at home and the Bills have a big fan base in Miami.  Look for lots of Fred Jackson and less emphasis on the pass out of the Bills. 

Packers -14 vs. Bucs

Aaron Rodgers is ridiculous ATS and is on fire right now.  The Bucs love to fall behind early and make late comebacks.  Well, you can’t do that against this team.  The Packers pass rush and opportunistic DBs give teams nightmares after Rodgers throws 3 early TDs.  The Bucs D has been getting shredded of late, both from the run and pass.  Look at the stats, if the Packers want to win this game by 30 they can.  We’ll see what they want!

Thursday November 17, 2011

Jets/Broncos Under 40

Tebow can’t throw the ball, that’s clear.  So the Broncos will continue to run the ball over 50 times.  The Jets offense is not too scary, and they too will look to avoid Sanchez mistakes and run the ball.  I trust Rex Ryan can formulate a solid game plan to stop a college-style attack.  On the other side, the Broncos defense should be getting a lot more respect.  The reason Tebow is 3-1 is thanks to them, not spectacular QB play.  Maybe it is the Tebow factor but this defense is really playing hard.  With both teams trying to play ball control and two above average defenses I see no why we get 6 TDs in this one.  Under.

Sunday November 13, 2011

Bengals +3 vs. Steelers (Loss)

The Steelers are old, they suck, blah blah blah.  OMG, the Steelers are awesome because they beat the Pats.  Best team in the AFC!  OMG, they lost to the Ravens, you suck again!  Welcome to the NFL.  Lets simplify this one;  division game, Bengals have a top 10 defense, home underdog.  Take the points.  The Steelers are worst in the league in turnover differential and bottom five in rushing.  Yep.

Texans -3 @ Bucs (Win)

The Texans defense is legit, and all it took was Wade Phillips.  Add in the best run game tandem in the league right now and you have a winning combination.  Schaub is now an after thought thanks to Arian and Ben Tate.  The Bucs have trouble defending the run and will not be able to establish a run game here.  Throwing the ball has been an issue for 3/4 of the game for the Bucs.  Freeman is off and the play calling is ridiculous.  Texans are the better team.  If they show up to play, they cover this spread.

Lions +3 @ Bears (Loss)

Jay Cutler is a roller coaster.  After a fantastic 3 week stretch we're betting on a downfall.  The Lions rush the passer better than anyone, unfortunately they have trouble defending the run.  Having said that, they have turned that around the last 2 games.  This is a huge division game and the public just saw the Bears dominate an over-rated turnover prone Philly team.  Woo hoo.  The Lions, former public darlings are now an after thought.  This team is #1 in the league in turnover differential and have the best WR in the game.  The Bears young safeties have performed well, but haven't faced Calvin and Hobbs.  Lions contain Forte just enough to hang within the number, and possibly upset the Bears.

Chiefs -3 vs. Broncos (Loss)

Something is a little off about this spread.  Sure it's 3, which is a perfectly normal spread but it basically means that these two teams are even since KC has a built in 3 point advantage since they're the home team.  We had the spread at KC -6 because we think that there's a definite advantage for the Chiefs.  They have a better QB, better receivers and are slightly better up front.  Tebow will keep the Broncos in games for the most part but as we saw with the Wildcat, it's successful until teams know it's coming.  The problem with the option in the NFL is that if teams know it's coming, then it's easier to defend.  If the option gets stuffed and Jesus err... Tebow is required to stand in the pocket and deliver, then we have our doubts.  He doesn't have the playmakers on the outside since Brandon Lloyd was traded, Eric Decker is not the answer, Eddie Royal has disappointed and Demaryius Thomas looks like a bust (for now).  The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss in front of the home crowd and the Broncos off a big win on the road.   We think the Chiefs are due for a bounce back and Broncos will have a bit of a letdown. 

Colts +3 vs. Jags (Loss)

The Peyton Mannings are terrible.  Without Peyton, they haven't won a game and have been pretty awful in recent weeks, losing by 55, 17 and 24.  So why do we have confidence in them here?  For a couple of reasons.  One, if you look at their remaining schedule, this is one of their best opportunities to win a game.  Only two teams in NFL history have gone an entire year without winning a single game and we don't think that the Colts will do that.  They were a playoff team last year with Manning, you're telling me that one guy is responsible for all of their wins?  As valuable as he is to them, he's not that valuable.  They'll win a game and this might be it.  Second, Jacksonville isn't exactly lighting up the league.  Blaine Gabbert is bad.  Like REALLY bad.  He's only won one game and managed a total of 12 points in that game.  Indy fans know this will be one of their best chances to win.  Grab the points with this home dog.

Thursday November 10, 2011

Raiders +7 @ Chargers (Win)

On a short week you generally take the home team.  But will you lay 7 points with a turnover prone Norv-turner led team that doesn’t win by margin?  Oh, and they are coming off a deflating loss.  Both these teams need this one BAD.  AFC West games are generally tight.  Take out the fiasco with Kyle Boller and they are typically 3-7 point margins.  The Broncos defeated the Raiders by 14 thanks to a late score when the Raiders D had given up.  They should be embarrased and the media is all over Hue Jackson now.  The ‘honeymoon is over’, the sky is falling, blah blah blah.  This is typically when I like to bet on teams.  If the Raiders win here the media flips the script and goes back to talking about the Raiders returning to glory.  Stupid ESPN.

Monday November 7, 2011

Bears +8 @ Eagles (Win)

This line seems a bit high as the Eagles are coming off a huge beatdown that everyone saw on national TV.  Nobody likes betting on Jay Cutler, including us; but they have finally tailored the offense to work around Cutler and Forte.  We don’t see as many 12 step drops and other Martz-isms.  Forte is running wild and Julius Peppers continues to play well.  We expect Philly to win, but enough of this lovefest with Vick.  He’s an up and down player and just came off a big ‘up’.

Sunday November 6, 2011

Bills -1.5 vs. Jets (Loss)

This line seems like a joke.  Bills are at home where they are undefeated and have beaten 3 playoff contenders in Oakland, New England, and Philadelphia.  The Jets are bottom ten in the league in Rush defense and Rush offense.  Yet people still believe they are this tough, powerhouse team.  Let's get real.  Buffalo is top 5 in the league in rushing; Fred Jackson is quietly having a pro-bowl year and Fitzpatrick is playing smart football.  Revis is good but Cromartie is getting burnt this season.  Buffalo still gets no respect.

Bucs +8 @ Saints (Loss)

This seems like it's about 3 points too high, so we like the value with the Bucs.  Teams coming off a bye went 5-1 last week.  Bucs off a bye.  Saints off a pretty bad showing in St. Louis.  Blount is healthy and will get a bunch of touches on Sunday with Ernest Graham out for the year.  Jonathan Vilma looks to be out for this one so Blount could be an even bigger factor.  Josh Freeman has taken a step back after a solid year last year but with the extra week of time to prepare, look for him to take good care of the ball.  The Bucs have played the Saints extremely tough the last three years, winning outright as 6.5 point dogs three weeks ago and splitting the contests the previous two years. 

Steelers -3 vs. Ravens (Loss)

Play against the Ravens, who we think are over-rated.  Cam Cameron can't pick the right plays and the Steelers are clicking on all cylinders right now.  Uni-brow (Flacco) has regressed since his impressive rookie season.  The Steelers got their asses kicked by Baltimore earlier this year, you think the Steelers have forgotten?  Flacco finally broken through and beat Big Ben so that monkey is no longer on his back so he can go back to losing to them every time.

Bengals +3 @ Titans (Win)

Bengals are 6-1 ATS, 4-0 on the road.  Tennessee got out played at times by Indy but thanks to turnovers won the game.  CJ2K doesn't want to play and their defense is slowly falling apart.  He'll have little running room against this Cincy team allowing just 86 rush ypg.  Bengals get Cedric Benson back and AJ Green is really starting to roll.  Without Kenny Britt the Titans passing game just looks sad.  Wrong team favored here.

Dolphins +4.5 @ Chiefs (Win)

There may not be a better opportunity for the Phins to sneak in a win than this one.  The Chiefs are in a flat spot coming off 4 victories with the last being an emotional (LUCKY) OT win over a division rival.  The Phins continue to fight hard but can’t find ways to win, similar to the Colts.  They have kept it close with much better teams and the Chiefs don’t win by margin (excluding Raiders QB fiasco game).  Sparano is better on the road, their first win WILL come on the road, this looks like a decent spot.