Sunday January 31, 2010 (3-0)

Valparaiso +6 @ Wisconsin-Green Bay W

Green Bay beat Valp at their place by 6.  This is a situation we look for in College bball.  If it is a close home loss, look for that opponent to seek revenge when they travel to that opponents place.  If it is a blowout, forget it the other team is just much better.  Valpo has beat a couple good teams on the road and rarely lose by a lot on the road.  We think this one is tight.

Wisconsin Milwaukee +8 vs. Butler W

Bark twice if you’re in Milwaukee.  The Panthers are 5-1 Straight up as an underdog and 7-2 at home.  They lost @ Butler by 13.  Home court is certainly worthy of 5 points.  Every team in the Horizon plays Butler, the top dog, their hardest.

Indiana State -1.5 @ Evansville W

Evansville is the New Jersey Nets of the Missouri Valley Conference.  They have lost 11 in a row!  11!  Indiana State is not great, but they have certainly played much better basketball than the Purple Aces.  With such a short line spread against a team that doesn’t know how to close a game, you gotta take the road favorite.  Something may be fishy here, but we’re hooked.

Saturday January 30, 2010 (1-1)

UAB -3 vs. UTEP L (Double OT failure!)

UAB is 18-2 and 10-0 at home.  They have always had a strong home court advantage, and this year is no different with a 10 point lead over Butler.  UTEP is very solid and is hot right now, but they may be overrated after an upset win over Memphis.  How can you not side with the home team?

Jacksonville State -4 vs. Eastern Illinois W

Two very even teams here so we will side with the hotter team at home versus a team on a back to back road game.  EIU is just 1-4 in their last 5 games and a conference trip to the swamp shouldn’t help.  We look to ride J State’s momentum after coming off a conference victory.

Friday January 29, 2010 (1-0)

Hawks -3.5 vs. Celtics W

The Hawks have been money at home all year long.  With them coming off a 15 point loss to the Spurs and the Celts coming up short against the Magic last night, the situation points to the Hawks like THE Situation points to his abs.  The Celts have done performed well in their recent back-to-backs.  Lay it.

Thursday January 28, 2010 (1-2)

College of Charleston +6 @ Davidson L

Charleston is the better team.  They beat Davidson earlier in the year by 12.  Home court advantage in College hoops is HUGE, but we’re talking about an 18 point swing here.  Charleston has also had Davidson’s number as of late, including an upset in the Southern tourney last year.  Seriously, hat are we missing here?  The Cougars are 13-7 (8-1 in conference play) going up against a team that is just 9-11 on the year (4-4 in conference).  They aren't very good on the road, just 4-6 on the year, but we look at this as a chance for the conference leaders to distance themselves from the pack against an inferior opponent.  So six points sounds like a gift.

Saint Peters +6 vs. Siena L

Home underdog, SIena is without their starting forward who averages 15+ points per game, and Saint Peters is on fire (5 straight wins).  Potential upset!

Florida Atlantic +2 @ South Alabama W

Two very even teams.  We’ll side with the hot team.  The Owls have won five of their last 6 and So. Alabama has lost five of their last 6.  The Jags beat the Owls in Florida by 3.  Revenge!

Tuesday January 26, 2010 (0-1)

The Bobcats have been s surprise team in the NBA this year but have been absolutely terrible on the road.  After last night’s game against Denver, they are now 3-17 on the road for the year.  The only team with fewer road wins is the Nets.  Any team that is having that type of comparison made to them deserves to be bet against, because you can’t bet on the Nets.  Both teams are coming in off a game in the Rockies, Suns played at Utah last night, so there’ really no advantage there.  Except for this is where the Suns usually play.  Look for both teams to start a little sluggish but the Suns will ride the home crowd to a victory. 

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND  (1-1, with the L being a moral victory!)

Saints -3.5 vs. Vikings  L (.5 point loss! Although we’ll take the push since it meant the demise of Mega Douche.  Greatest push ever!)

After thorough number crunching, the Vikings definitely have the better defense.  However, offensively the Saints have better numbers.  The one weakness in the Vikes defense is their secondary.  If the Williams brothers, Ray Edward and Jared Allen don’t get pressure on Brees quickly, they are in trouble. The Saints average a whopping additional 63.85 passing yards per game over their opponents season average allowed per game.  They also average 4.55 rush yard per carry, and 11.5 pass yards per attempt.  The Vikes aren’t far behind in pass number,s but for some reason, Adrian Peterson is average. We can’t believe we just said that.  Statistically the 3 headed monster in New Orleans has outperformed AP.  Although the Vikes defense has much more solid number,s the Saints defense is very opportunistic and are finally healthy.  They held Arizona to 14 points! And 7 points came of a 70-yard TD run.  The Saints D can play.  After crunching numbers we had a slight lean on Minnesota and do think they pose some matchup issues for the Saints.  However, we are siding with NO because they are at home.  The place will be rocking, and if the Saints get a 2 score lead it’s game over.  The Saints will win if this game becomes a shootout.  The Vikes have not played well on the road (4-4), and this is definitely their most daunting road game.  Additionally, we have seen the Saints come back from being down many time s(see Miami and Washington games).  The Vikes have generally held a lead and we think they might stumble when down (see Bears and Cardinals games).  If any handicapper say well the Vikes killed the Cowboys and the Cowboys beat the Saints, so the Vikes are better....OR, the Cardinals killed the Vikes and the Saints killed the Cards so the Saints are better are dumb.  Because Team A beats Team B and Team B beats Team C does NOT mean Team A will beat Team C...especially in the NFL.  Throw that crap out. Side with the wild home team that will be riding an emotional high.  Brett will get tired and cry after the game. 

We could make a case for either side in this game.  The Jets are playing absolutely out of their minds.  Rex Ryan runs his mouth almost as much as he stuffs it full of food.  Problem for the opposition is that the team is actually following through on his predictions. When he announced prior to the playoffs starting that his team should be favored to win it all, everyone laughed.  They then went out and beat two teams that almost everyone thought they would lose to.  They’re playing with a tremendous amount of confidence right now and are basically playing with house money.   No one expects them to win this one either.  They have the number 1 defense in the league and a great running attack.  The Colts on the other hand could be coming into this one with a little chip on their shoulder.  In week 16, up 15-10 Peyton Manning and many of the other Colts starters were pulled midway through the 3rd quarter against the Jets and ended up losing 29-15.  The reaction from the crowd was terrible.  Colts fans are known to be sportsmanlike and have a great appreciation for the game.  They felt cheated that the Colts would not continue on their quest for a perfect season.  By the third series that Painter was in, the crowd was filing out of the stadium.  The local media that week showed the players’ reaction as a tad more angry that what the rest of the country saw on Sports Center.  They were pissed and feel that they owe something to the Jets.  The crowd will be EXTREMELY fired up for this one, and the Colts will be playing with focus.  They dismantled the Ravens last week against a defense that was coached last year by Rex Ryan.  That should benefit them.  Also, this might be Peyton Manning’s best season as QB of the Colts.  He can absolutely pick defenses apart and has no problem spreading the ball around to the open receiver.  We look for this game to be controlled by the Colts on both sides of the ball and for the run of the Jets to end on Sunday. 

Thursday January 21, 2010 (0-1)

Clippers +10 @ Nuggets L

Both teams come off a late game last night in California, but the Nuggets game went even later (Overtime win at the Warriors).  We could see some tired legs and possibly an under.  However, we choose to side with the Clips, who are now healthy.  With Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, and the ugliest man in the world, Chris Kaman, the Clips are 9-1.  Wow.  Well, these guys are in the lineup and should give the tired Nuggets some trouble.  The Nuggets have played down to their opponents, as evidenced by their 6-12 ATS record versus teams with losing records.  The Nuggets are clearly the better team and are fantastic at home, but we gotta take the points with a reenergized Clippers team.

DIVISIONAL ROUND (1-3)

Ravens +6.5 @ Colts L

The Ravens were dominant last week, running all over the Patriots and created 4 turnovers from Tom Brady with 3 picks (2 tipped) and a strip sack by our boy Terrell Suggs.  Ray Lewis might actually kill somebody on the field...and get away with it.  ZING!  The Ravens have been in playoff mode for a solid month now, while the Colts lost the last two games of the regular season and then had a bye.  They haven't played competitive football in almost a month.  The two teams played earlier in the year and Nick took them +1 and they lost by 2, and blew countless opportunities to score more points.  Indy has struggled this year against teams that controlled the clock and grind out the game (see Miami).  Defense shows up in road games and that is what the Ravens showed last week and in previous playoffs.  Last year the Ravens went into Wild Card weekend to play the hot AFC East champion Miami and won by 18.  They then went to Tennessee in a place no one thought they had a chance of winning and won 13-10.  They then lost to the Steelers, but this team is hungry and learned from last year's run to the AFC Championship game.  This year they go to New England and win by 19.  Can they pull the upset in Indy?

Cardinals +7 @ Saints L

Here we go again.  The Cardinals did this to us last year.  This exact thing.  They came in as NFC West champs but weren't playing their best ball going into the playoffs.  They hosted Atlanta in the Wild Card game and the line opened around AZ -2, but closed with ATL -1.5.  Hmmm...sounds like last week.  They then went to Carolina and Jake Delhomme gift wrapped a trip to the NFC Championship game.  Bottom line is the Cardinals are a team that can just turn it on with a click of a switch.  They can get on a roll and beat any team in the league.  Kurt Warner threw more touchdown passes than had incomplete passes last week.  That's ridiculous.  New Orleans has lost 3 in a row and doesn't have the same feel as the team that started the season 13-0.  Drew Brees is still a great quarterback and I certainly would not want to be on Arizona's defense.  I also would not want to be facing Kurt Warner, God, Larry Fitzgerald, Jesus Christ and the rest of the Cardinals offense.  If this is the year that Warner retires, we wouldn't want to bet against him.  Especially if he's grabbing a touchdown.

Cowboys/Vikings UNDER 46 W

The great Vikings defense we’ve grown accustomed to the past couple years has gone away in recent weeks.  Enter the Williams (fake) brothers and the playoffs.  Antoine Winfield should finally be healthy, and both Kevein and Pat will be on the line.  Jared Allen will be matched up against the once great Flozell Adams.  Adams is a BIG, run blocking tackle.  A future hall of famer potentially.  However, he struggles in pass protection against fast linemen.  Allen has a relentless motor and should put pressure on Romo all day while the Williams brothers stop the run.  The Cowboys will run directly at Allen and should be able to pick up some good yardage at times.  On the other side, Favre will be pressured as well against a peaking Demarcus Ware, Spencer, and Ratlif.  We expect a strong dose of running with AP and short 3 step drops by Favre.  Here we have two pressure defenses and two QBs that are prone to making mistakes.  Make no mistake about it, these two teams have scored.  But with the recent play of the Cowboys defense and a finaly healthy Vikes defense, we’ll take our shot at the Under.  Strong lean towards Cowboys +3 as well, but we’re a tad scared of the 8-0 Vikes Home record.

Chargers/Jets OVER 42 L

All week we’ve heard about how the Jets run defense is amazing and the Chargers can’t run so this is the perfect matchup.  Well guess what?  The Chargers don’t want to run.  LT is old and Norv is not smart enough to give the rock to Darren Sproles, a true playmaker.  Their numbers are skewed because of LT.  Philip Rivers can pass on anyone, and although Revis has established himself as one of the top 3 CBs in the league, Rivers has seen Nnamdi Asomougha and Champ Bailey 4 times these year.  If the Jets stop the run, the Chargers will throw throw throw and keep a lot of time on the clock.  The Jets will not be able to cover Jackson, Gates, Floyd, Nannee, and Sproles.  On the flip side, the Jets will certainly be able to run the ball against a soft Chargers front.  We expect them to capitalize on some long drives with some Shonne Greene TDs or Sanchez play action simple passes.  The Chargers will always retaliate with quick scoring drives.  We expect both teams to score in the 20s and this one to sail over. 

Thursday January 14, 2010 (0-3)

Auburn +16 @ Tennessee L (Excellent 2nd half!)

Despite suspensions and other distractions the Volunteers were able to upset #1 Kansas.  Enter your classic letdown situation.  Now UT has an inflated line versus a decent SEC rival.  Auburn beat UT last year, and Bruce Pearl has let his team know that by showing them the tape.  So for that reason I expect UT to win, but 16 points is tough to cover.

Indiana +13.5 @ Michigan L

Tell us why an 8 win team is favored by 13 over a 7 win team within the same conference?   These teams are fairly similar, and while Michigan has a great home record including a win over Ohio State, the Hoosiers aren’t a pushover.  In fact they beat Michigan at home earlier this year.  They’ll lose and stick within the number here.

Tennessee Chattanooga -2.5 vs. Citadel L (Half point loss)

This line just seems too easy.  The Mocs are 5-0 in their last five and 7-2 at home.  The Citadel is 4-4 on the road.  UT-Chat is 51-15 vs. the Citadel.  Despite having a young team, I don’t see why they can’t make it 52-15.

Tuesday January 12, 2010 (0-1)

Wizards -5 vs. Pistons L

Battle of the terrible Eastern Conference teams in the Nation's Capital!!!  The Pistons have lost 13 in a row and none have been closer than 5, with the average margin of defeat a whopping 15 ppg.  They're 3-16 on the road this year and lost to the Bulls in Chicago by 33 last night. This is not the proud franchise they once were, they are - in the words of Charles Barkley - turrible.  The Wizards aren't exactly a great team, but we like them here.  After Gilbert Arenas was suspended by the NBA, the next home game Antawn Jamison came out and addressed the crowd saying that this is supposed to be a place you can bring your family, we need your support, blah blah...all in all a nice speech.  And then they came out and beat Orlando.  This team is moving forward from the Agent Zero fiasco and playing good competitive basketball.

Monday January 11, 2010 (1-0)

New Mexico State +8 @ Idaho W

This appears to be two even teams, and while Idaho is worthy of a few extra points for a great home court advantage, 8 appears to be too much.  After a bad start to the season the young NMSU team has won 6 of their last 8 and are coming off a solid road win @ Boise State.  Why not make it two wins in the Potato state?

WILDCARD WEEKEND (1-2)

Patriots -3.5 vs. Ravens L

Tom Brady led the Patriots to the only undefeated home record in the AFC this year and hasn't lost in Foxboro since 2006.  They've got a healthy stable of running backs that should be able to run the ball effectively.  Big Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren will be back from injuries on the D-Line after missing the past couple of weeks so that will help against Rice and McGahee.  Plus we also think that the young defense really feeds off the crowd at home especially the secondary, as evidenced by allowing 12.9 ppg and limiting opposing QBs to 54% completion and 165 yards.  The two teams played earlier this year in Week 4 with the Pats winning by 6.  We don't think that Tom Brady was really back to normal during that game and should show the Ravens some things they didn't see in the first match-up.  After starting off the year on fire, Joe Flacco has regressed to a QB that manages a game and doesn't grab it by the balls.  One thing for sure is that Brady is a QB that can grab a game by the balls and that is what you're looking for in the post season.

Packers @ Cardinals W/L!

This line has gone from Cardinals -2 to Packers -2.5.  The public is absolutely pounding the Packers.  The Bengals/Jets game was about 50/50, and the Cowboys and Ravens are being picked a little over 50%.  This $ on this game however is coming in 75+% on the Pack.  We have a split decision on this game.  Bdoug favors the Cards and Nick likes the Packers.  Nick likes the Packers because their numbers are flat out better than the Cards, and he is right.  In every asset of the game, the Packs numbers are better.  Bdoug likes the Cardinals for the following reasons:  Whisenhunt is pissed that the Packers kept their starters in so long and blew them out Week 17; This is the same situation for the Cards last year, they limped in, played a hot Falcons team and everyone bet on Atlanta; The Packers can be beat through the air.  Nick is correct about the stats, but the situational factors favor the Cards. This game is too close to call and that is why we have a split decision!  Which ever team wins this game could be another Cinderella.

Bengals -2.5 vs. Jets L

Great value here with the Bungles after they got their asses kicked at NY.  The Jets were playing for their lives in Week 17 and the game meant nothing to the Bengals.  The bashing they took could now be used as motivation for the Bengals who will have Cedric Benson, Robert Geathers, and Domata Peko back on the field.  Cedric Benson has proven he can run against top defenses so his return will be huge.  Meanwhile, California Boy Mark Sanchez will be playing in his first playoff game, and will be in very cold weather.  With two defensive starters back the Bengals will be able to keep the Jets from running the ball like they did in Week 17.  That means Dirty Sanchez will be forced to throw and should be good for 1-3 INTs.  If he throws that crappy soft out pattern ball Joseph and Hall may be getting a pick 6.  Meanwhile Rex “Fat Idiot” Ryan is running his mouth about how great his team is.  Shut up fat boy, the Bengals took good notes in the Week 17 game and will be happy to return the favor against a rookie QB and rookie Head Coach.

Cowgirls -3.5 vs. Eagles W

It is very difficult to beat a team twice in a season.  Even more difficult to beat one three times.  We are were very inclined to grab the 3.5 points because the Eagles tend to always make it to the NFC Championship THEN fail, and the Cowgirls like to fail early.  However, we just think the Cowboys are the better team and are playing lights out right now.  Out of all the teams in the playoffs they have the most pressure on them by far.  If they lose this game their will be talks of Wade Phillips job, Tony Romo dating celebrities, etc..  They NEED to get over the hump and at least get out of this round.  Andy Reid may decide to throw the ball every single play like he always does, so he may really help us out by making his team one dimensional.  Desean Jackson has talked some smack which will only add to Dallas’ fire.  Although we would like to see an Andy Reid/Rex Ryan mayonnaise eating Super Bowl, we’ve decided to bet against both teams.  Oh well.  Look for Tony Romo to be all smiles at the end of the game and the country to become Romosexuals, once again.

Friday January 8, 2010 (0-1)

Bucks -4 vs. Bulls L (Another 1 point loss.  Really?)

The Bucks return home after an easy battle with the Nets.  The Bucks have been solid at home and as we mentioned on Tuesday Michael Redd is working his way back from injury, and the Aussie Andrew Bogut has been improving greatly.  The Bucks have quickness at the guard position to stick with Derrick Rose, and the Bulls just suck on the road.

Thursday January 7, 2010 (0-1)

Penn State -1.5 vs. Michigan L (Thanks for blowing a 15 pt halftime lead)     

The home team has dominated in this series and we think that trend will continue here.  Penn St. junior guard Talor Battle has been absolutely lighting it up lately, hitting 19 3's in his last 5 games and leads the Nittany Lions in points, rebounds, assists and steals.  He's also played every single minute of Big Ten play so far this year, showing just how vital he is to their success.  The Lions limit opponents to a slightly lower FG% than the Wolverines and also shoot the rock at a slightly higher clip.  The slightly better team who's playing at home will prevail here.  Take the short price.

Tuesday January 5, 2010 (1-2)

Bobcats -6.5 vs. Bulls L (1.5 pt loss.  God and Kurt Warner are not on our side)

The Bobcats are 11-4 at home and will be on 2 days rest after a 3 game road trip.  The Bulls are on a back to back after a loss to the Thunder last night.  The Bulls have been horrid on the road and their 2nd games on back to back nights have been even worse.  Their last 4 games following a game the prior night have been losses by 32, 35, 26, and 7.  We’ll take the Cats.

Bucks -1.5 @ Nets W

The Nets won their 3rd game last week so they should be good for 2-3 weeks of straight losses.  The Bucks are not good on the road, but the Nets have won just 2 games at home.  Michael Redd is back for the Bucks and seemed to get his groove back the last game against the Thunder.  We’ll continue to bet against the Nets in this price range.

Iowa +16 @ Illinois L (1 pt loss)

Iowa is just 3-10 ATS in all lined games, but Illinois is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite.  This line just seems a tad high.  Iowa just lost to Minnesota by 12 and Purdue by 11.  Both those teams are better than Illinois.  Illinois is coming off a loss to Gonzaga, and their previous losses after a win were followed by a 2nd loss.  That shows us this team may not be mentally tough and tend to have let downs after a loss.  This is a lot of points for a Big Ten matchup.

Sunday January 3, 2010 (4-2-1)

        *Monster Play*

Patriots +7 @ Texans P (14 point lead late in 4th and you push?!  WTFuck!)

The Patriots achilles heel all year has been the road.  They won their last road game at Buffalo, lost the previous one at Miami by one.  They've clinched the AFC East and will be either the 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs.  There may not be much motivation from a seeding standpoint, since they'll be guaranteed at least one home playoff game, with the possibility of two if they get the 3 seed.  They will be looking to build on their win last week against Jacksonville where it looked like they finally put four quarters of football together.  Brady will play, and it looks like he'll play at least 2 if not 3 quarters.  They've also been notoriously fast starters this year so look for them to jump out to a lead in the first half.  The Texans meanwhile are colossal choke artists and do not play well as favorites.  The Texans also need about 8 things to happen for them to make the playoffs.

Chiefs +11 @ Broncos W

Divisional battles are typically hard fought games and this one shouldn't be any different.  By the Broncos doing the Chiefs the favor of benching Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler, we do not see this one being a blowout AT ALL.  Quite the contrary.  The Chiefs should keep this one close because they are familiar with the Broncos and get a chance to play spoiler against their most hated rival.  The last 3 times Kansas City has been double digit dogs, they're 2-1 ATS with a straight up win against the Steelers.  They've thrived in this role recently and will be focused for this one.

Raiders +10.5 vs. Ravens W

You can argue the Ravens have everything to play for and the Raiders have nothing, and you would be mostly correct.  However, this is still a big game for the Raiders who look to improve off last season by 1 game.  They won their last two games of the season last year so there should be no quit in them.  If the Ravens win, their “in”.  However, we have seen some East Coast teams struggle mightily in Oakland, see Philly and Cincy.  This is definitely not a “gimme” game.  Coach Tom Cable is also playing for his job.  He recently spoke badly about Jamarcus and stated they would be a playoff team had they made the QB change earlier.  That likely pissed Al Davis off so he better win here or he’s out.  If Ray Rice gets going early this could be ugly, but grabbing 10+ points with the home team seems like the right side.

Niners/Rams UNDER 41 W

Another divisional battle on the last day of the regular season with neither team really having anything to play for.  The Rams are looking to lock up the #1 overall draft pick in April and probably won't put up too much fight in this one.  The Niners will likely be playing to just finish out the season and they have not shown to have an explosive offense by scoring 18.3 ppg over the last seven.  The Rams are awful on offense averaging 11 ppg on the year.  Without much to play for on either side, we see this one being a boring game from the opening kick.

Titans -5.5 @ Seahawks L

Usually east coast teams flying west to play are not profitable.  This however seems like a good spot.  Tennessee still has something to play for and hope to finish at .500 after starting the year 0-6.  Vince Young looks like he's the QB for good in Tennessee and Chris Johnson is just 128 yards shy of 2,000 and still has an outside shot at Eric Dickerson's single season record of 2,105 (he'll need 234 to break the record).  Seattle cannot stop the run and they've been AWFUL the last three weeks, losing by a combined 106-24.  Matt EASbeck has been a turnover machine the last two weeks with 8 picks and he'll struggle against a Tennessee defense that has 19 picks on the year (tied for 8th in the league).

Eagles +3 @ Cowboys L

This is certainly the game of the week where the winner will claim the NFC East and possibly a first round bye (guaranteed 1st round bye if Philly wins).  The Cowgirls went to Philly and stole a win, so we think Philly returns the favor here and wins outright.  Both of these teams defenses have played great, particularly Dallas.  That scares us, but not as much as skinny Desean Jackson will scare the Cowboys secondary.  If the Philly O-Line can give Campbells Chunky Soup man some time we’ll see some big plays from the Eagles.  Tony Romo did not f things up in December, but there’s plenty of time for that in January!

Bears -3 @ Lions W

Meaningless game here, but we think it means more to the Bears (particularly Jay Cutler) than it does the Cowardly Lions.  Jay Cutler has been god awful all year long but came through last week with some heroics in overtime.  Hopefully that will give the little emo bitch some confidence and he’ll “bring it” here.  The Lions will be without Matt Stafford again and should suck it up just a tad more than the Bears.