Nick’ 2009 College Football Bowl Game Picks

Bdoug and Nick will be splitting the Bowl games and having a friendly ATS competition.  The winner will get to smack the loser in the face with an open palm.  Here’s Bryan’s Page.



 
 

FINAL BOWL RECORD: 5-12.  Ouch.  Nick had a rough go at the Bowls.  Bdoug wins!  Nick owes Bdoug a Vegas buffet.



January 7, 2009 - “National Championship” Game


TEXAS +4 vs. Alabama L


You'll notice the quotations above.  The BCS is gay and college football needs a playoff.  See my rant.  DO IT.  Anyways, Alabama is the better team this year.  They've got the 2nd best defense in the country (TCU #1) and have been battle tested all year in the SEC, plus a non-conference game against Virginia Tech to kick off the year.  They've got the Heisman trophy winner and are the consensus #1 team in the country.  There are a couple of problems though.  First, Texas is no slouch on D, as they're number 3 in the country.  You could point to the strength of schedule of Bama over Texas, but both teams have been off for what seems like forever, so you can throw that out.  There may be perception that Bama kicked Florida's ass so they should also kick Texas' ass since they're lucky to even be here after barely surviving against Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game.  Not true at all.  Remember a couple of years ago when Texas was going against USC with Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, and everyone and their mom was blowing USC leading up to the game.  Then the Longhorns came out and played in one of the best college football games in recent memory.  I see the same thing here.  Another couple of factoids:  of the last 7 Heisman winners playing for the National Championship, 6 have lost.  The last four BCS title games between 1 and 2 have resulted in the #2 team winning each time.  You can handicap all the stats but you can't handicap a team that isn't getting the respect they feel they deserve.  Grab the Horns.


January 5, 2009 - Orange Bowl


IOWA STATE +4.5 vs. Georgia Tech W


This is a tough game to call.  On the one hand, Georgia Tech has been very impressive in executing the triple option offense this year, as evidenced by their 300 ypg on the ground and having an 11-2 record.  On the other hand you have Iowa who was undefeated prior to a January game against Northwestern when they lost starting QB Ricky Stanzi to an ankle injury.  Well, their defense kept them in the rest of the way against Northwestern, against Ohio St. The following week and pitched a shutout against Minnesota to end their regular season.  Iowa has quick linebackers and athletic defensive lineman that could neutralize the triple option.  Plus Stanzi comes back for this one to a team that he hasn't lost with when he played a full game this year, and who knows if they remained undefeated if he never sustained that injury.  We've seen option offenses give teams fits in bowl games so far this year.  I'll take a chance with the dog again.


January 2, 2009 - International/Cotton/Alamo Bowls


NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7 vs. South Florida L


The dogs have been covering and there really doesn't appear to be a significant advantage for one team over the other, so why not back the dog right?  The Huskies will likely try and establish the ground game.  Their offensive line should be able to push around the Bulls defensive front, and should keep it close.  They'll be playing inside a dome, so the overall team speed of the Bulls could play a part in this one, but we like grabbing the points with the team that can control the game in the trenches.


OKLAHOMA STATE +3 vs. Ole Miss L


Both of these teams have been up and down all year, both spending time in the top of the polls only to trip up and show inconsistency.  There shouldn't be any kind of motivational edge in this one.  Look for each team to try and establish a ground game with the slight edge to Okie St. with Hunter and Toston, who are both burners that can get to the edge and get yards in bunches.  The Cowboys have the premier left tackle in college football so look for them to have a slight edge there too.  This one looks too close to call, so we'll side with the short dog.


TEXAS TECH -7.5 vs. Michigan State W


Hey did you here that Mike Leach got fired?  Yeah, we did too.  Pretty messed up.  Everything that we're hearing from the team is that they're looking to this game and should rally around this controversy.  The Spartans have suspended 11 players for this game and we think that's what the difference is going to be here.  The Red Raiders should be able to pass all over a Spartan defense that gave up 700 yards to Purdue and Penn St. combined in their last two games, not exactly a good thing when you're playing pass happy Texas Tech.  This is a lot of points to be laying but we can't back the Spartans here.


January 1, 2009 - Gator/Rose Bowls


WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 vs. Florida State L


This is Bobby Bowden's last game coaching and there could be some serious emotion from his players.  Ultimately though, the better team will be on the opposite sideline.  The Seminoles should have a lot of trouble slowing down the Mountaineers spread offense, because they really struggled against Florida in their last regular season game.  WVU had tougher competition all year.  This should be a tough game that could come down to the wire.  Mountaineers should come out on top though.


OREGON -4 vs. Ohio State L


It's the granddaddy of them all with Pac-10 champ Oregon Ducks and the Big Ten champs Ohio St. Buckeyes, presented by Summer's Eve or whatever the hell it's presented by.  The Ducks have been tested all year long starting with the loss at Boise St. to open the season. They've endured nicely and came out on top in the Pac-10.  Masoli has directed this explosive offense to big wins over big time opponents.  The Buckeyes don't have too many "big wins".  They beat Iowa without Stanzi, @ Penn St. (overrated) and lost to USC and Purdue.  The Ducks should win in this battle of offense vs. defense, so why not lay the points.


December 31, 2009 - Texas/Sun/Chik-Fil-A Bowls


MISSOURI -6.5 vs. Navy L


As much as we'd like to take the Midshipmen here, the Tigers are clearly the superior team.  Navy's triple option has given team fits this year.  Mizzou's pass happy offense should give the Midshipmen trouble.  The Tigers have won three in a row and actually have been pretty stingy against the run allowing less than 100 ypg.  We think it might be closer than anticipated, but in the end, the Tigers are the better team.


STANFORD +8.5 vs. Oklahoma W


The Sooners have been overrated all year in our opinion.  Since taking over for Sam Bradford, Landry Jones has been up and down.  Overall, they were basically a .500 team (7-5) and didn't have too many "big wins" (@ Kansas in the middle of their debacle and against hated Okie St.) and plenty of "big losses" (41-13 against Texas Tech, 10-3 to Nebraska, vs. BYU, Miami).  Bottom line is they don't seem to be able to step up in class.  They also may not be able to get up for this one, as they've gone to 4 straight BCS bowl games before this year.  Stanford could be without QB Andrew Luck who just had surgery, but Heisman runner up Toby Gerhart will be fresh to carry the load.  He averaged 29 carries a game over the last 4 games, and led his team to an 8-4 record.  Grab the points.


TENNESSEE +5.5 vs. Virginia Tech L


Like him or hate him, Lane Kiffin has this team headed in the right direction.  This will be a big test for them as perennial power Virginia Tech is coming into this one on a 4-game winning streak.  This game features one of my favorite players in the country in Tennessee Safety Eric Berry.  He seems to always be in the right place at the right time and should be a Top 10 pick come April.  The Vols were able to keep it close with Florida and should have upset #2 Alabama.  This team can play.  Monte Kiffin will have his defense ready to play with a month to prepare for the Hokies, just look at how he handled Bama when given two weeks to prepare.


December 30, 2009 - Humanitarian Bowl


IDAHO +2 vs. Bowling Green W


A match-up of two pretty even teams.  Bowling Green has a pass happy offense and the Vandals have one of the worst passing defenses in FBS, ranked 114th on the year.  The advantages that we see in this one are the superior size that the Vandals have along the line, plus the home field since this game is being played at Boise State on the smurf turf.  Something wacky might happen in this one, take that Vandals.


December 29, 2009 - Eagle Bank Bowl


TEMPLE +5.5 vs. UCLA L (Colossal meltdown! WTFuck!)


Can someone please tell me why a 6-6 UCLA team, whose best win came against Tennessee in Week Two (which by the way was their only win against a team with a winning record) is favored over a Temple team who won 9 games in a row this year and finished at 7-1 in the MAC???  That's what I thought.  UCLA is garbage and there is no way that they cover this number.  Temple is an up and coming program with a ton to prove on the national stage by beating a Pac-10 team on national TV.  Grab the points.


December 27, 2009 - Music City Bowl


CLEMSON -7 vs. Kentucky W


Once again, another matchup of a team that likes to run against a team that can't stop the run.  CJ Spiller is explosive and will break a couple of big ones against a Kentucky defense that ranked 100th in FBS this year against the run.  Once the Tigers get a lead, expect the defense to pick up the pressure on Kentucky QB Kyle Parker.  The Tigers also have a significant edge in the special teams game.  This could be close early, and the Wildcats have been tested all year in the SEC but Clemson is the better team here.


December 26, 2009 - Meineke Car Care Bowl


PITT -2.5 vs. North Carolina L


Freshman RB Dion Lewis is one of the best running backs in all of college football that almost nobody has heard of, likely because he's a freshman and he plays at Pitt.  The Heels have one of the best passing defenses in college, but the Panthers have a good balanced attack and are extremely physical.  The Panthers also seem to be the more motivated of the two squads.  Take the Panthers.


December 24, 2009 - Sheraton Hawaii Bowl


NEVADA -12.5 vs. SMU L


The Wolfpack has the #1 rushing attack in the country (and it's not even close) with three 1,000 yard rushers on their team and can absolutely light up the scoreboard averaging 50+ ppg in their last 4.  Nevada will be without two of their 1,000 yard rushers for this game; one is out with a toe injury, and another has been deemed academically ineligible.  That leaves the rushing duties up to QB Colin Kaepernick but it shouldn't make much of a difference.  The guys that will split the carries each have a 100 yard game this year, including Mike Ball who had 184 yards and 5 TDs against UNLV.  SMU has a pretty poor rushing defense, giving up 169 yards per game, ranking 88th in the country.  Don't be scared.


December 22, 2009 - Las Vegas Bowl


OREGON STATE -1.5 vs. BYU L


The Beavers had won four in a row prior to losing to Oregon in the Civil War.  Head coach Mike Riley has them playing tough football.  BYU QB Max Hall is an absolute machine and takes all that the defense gives him.  This should be another great game.  BYU is making their fifth consecutive appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl and will surely have some support at the game.  In a game earlier in the year at UNLV, Oregon St. showed up with quite a few fans, so they might even out the Mormon influence at Sam Boyd.  Bottom line is the Beavers have more athletes and playmakers.  We'll take the short price.


December 19, 2009 - St. Petersburg Bowl


CENTRAL FLORIDA +3.5 vs. Rutgers L


This should be a great game.  Both teams have outstanding run defenses, with the slight edge to Central Florida who's 4th in the nation.  They held Texas to 67 rushing yards at Texas and only 70 against the Hurricanes.  That leaves the game up to the quarterbacks.  UCF starts senior Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges who was 8-3 as a starter this year (missed the game against Texas).  Rutgers starts freshman QB Tom Savage who has been good at managing games, but we don't trust him against a good defense.  WR Tim Brown for Rutgers is questionable for Saturday and he is their big playmaker.  If he's out, the Scarlet Knights will miss him greatly.  UCF's four losses this year were to Texas, Miami, ECU (very good team) and Southern Miss.  They've played tough all year, especially at home.  Since this game is being played in St. Pete, this should essentially be a home game for the Knights.   Plus we were burned by Rutgers earlier in the year...twice.   Rutgers FAIL..


We will be picking every Bowl game....keep checking.