Monday November 30, 2009 L (Great 1st half.  2nd half not so much)

Virginia -5 vs. Penn State

ACC versus Big Ten.....9 times out of ten we’ll take the ACC.  Two decent squads here but Virginia is 3-0 at home and Penn State has yet to have a true road game.  With this being aired on ESPN2, we can expect a decent student crowd.  Penn State has had 3 neutral site games, 2 of which were losses to UNC Wilmington and Tulane.  The 3rd was a narrow victory over Davidson.  Virginia has had a tougher schedule thus far and we expect that to help them to their 4th straight victory at home this season.

Sunday November 29, 2009 (1-3-1) At least we won our Monster

            *Monster Play*

49ers -3 vs. Jaguars W

The Faguars travel all the way to San Fran after 3 straight wins.  They are probably feeling pretty good about themselves so we really like this spot.  The Niners have won only 1 of their last 6 games, but have played some really tough opponents.  The Jags can run the ball with our man crush MJD, but outside that we don’t trust them.  They had opportunities to crush the Bills last week and chose to grind it out.  San Fran can shut down the run so look for Garrard to make some mistakes.  The Jags allow 26 points on the road compared to 16 at home.  The last time the Jags traveled to the West Coast was a 41-0 defeat at the hands of a bad Seahawks team.

Titans -3 vs. Cardinals P (Win if you had them at 1.5 like I did on my card =))

All Vince Young does is win games.  No seriously, they showed his stats during the game last week and he's won 8 in a row and overall is 22-11 as a starter.  Arizona is 5-0 on the road so far this year and this looked like another win just a short couple of weeks ago.  But the Titans are playing with a lot of confidence right now, and Chris Johnson is playing possessed.  Every time he touches the ball, the defense has to think that he is taking it to the house.  He's incredible. Arizona finally loses one on the road.

Texans +3.5 vs. Colts L (F you Texans and your 17-0 lead)

This is the Texans Superbowl after losing their primetime game last week.  They cannot afford to go 5-6.  Obviously the Colts want to win but they really don’t need to.  The Texans had opportunities to beat the Colts at Indy but their kicker sucked it up again.  The Colts are very good but in no means are they crushing their opponents.  Their last 4 wins came by margins of 2, 1, 3, and 4.  This game means much more to the Texans and we get two very similar teams.  Take the home dog in the outright upset.  Colts lose today.

Dolphins -3 @ Bills L

The Phins are the better team, plain and simple.  Even without Ronnie Brown, the offense was able to move the ball last week against Carolina.  They are technically still alive for a playoff berth, so they'll be playing their asses off.  The Bills will be playing their first game at home under new head coach Perry Fewell and could be playing with a lot of emotion.  Too bad their talent doesn't match up with Miami.  We like the Dolphins here in a tough divisional match up.

Panthers +3 @ Jets L (We’re done betting on the Panther until they bench Delhomme)

Jake Delhomme on the road, yes we ARE crazy.  The Jets are on their way down, the panthers are on their way up.  It's as simple as that.  The Jets run D will have its hands full with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Sanchize will probably throw a couple of picks and the Panthers will win this one going away.  Jets suck.

Saturday November 28, 2009 (2-2)

Duke +5 vs. Wake Forest L

Both teams are struggling right now as the Deacons have lost 5 in a row and the Devils have lost 3 in a row.  With a win, Duke can get to .500 for the year.  They've played the Deacons tough the past two years and should be able to pass on them.  Wake Forest had a stretch of 3 games they lost by 3 or less then lost by 13 last week to Florida St.  It looks like they may have thrown in the towel on the season especially in a road game here.  Look for a live home dog on Saturday.

Notre Dame +10 @ Stanford W

The Irish will be playing for Charlie Weis' job here.  If they like him at all, they will be playing their butts off.  The offense can score the ball on anybody and if the defense can show up this week, it should be another thriller.  8 of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less.  It scares us that Stanford can also put up crazy points, as evidenced by back-to-back 50 point games against Oregon and USC.  We think this game means a lot more to the Irish than to the Cardinal.  Take the points.

South Carolina +3 vs. Clemson W

Another big rivalry game here, and we like the home dog.  USC plays great defense at home and after 3 straight losses were sure ‘old ball coach’ regrouped his team during the Bye.  USC has had a much tougher schedule with their last 3 coming against Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee.  A week off before ‘senior day’?  Yeah, we’ll take the home dogs in their biggest game of the year.

Oklahoma State +8 @ Oklahoma L

Big rivalry game here and OU has owns State for several years.  Zac Robinson is listed as probable now so we will press our luck with the big road dogs.  OU is sitting at 6-5, so this game means much more to the 9-2 twelfth ranked Cowboys.  Yes its senior night and we hate betting against that, but we’re getting a touchdown plus, with a great offensive team.  Woof woof, we like the dogs this week!

Friday November 27, 2009 (0-1)

Cincinnati -21 vs. Illinois L

Illinois has been up and down all season, but they have consistently been bad, despite those wins they trinkled in.  Cincy will look to continue their quest for perfection against a team that can’t stop the pass.  Pike will start this game and should have all day in the pocket to throw multiple TDs.  Juice Williams may play, and he sucks so we like that.  Lay the points in this primetime game.

Wednesday November 25, 2009 (1-1)

NIT season opener tournament in Madison Square Garden.  Neutral site, but the Dukies will have an advantage being the east coast team.  This will be the toughest test of the year for both squads as they have scheduled cupcakes early.  Zona State appears to have the tougher of the two early shcedules with games against decent San Francisco and TCU teams.  Zona State lost 2 players to the NBA, however  they still return 3 starters including a senior guard.  Same story for Duke, a bunch of overrated goofy white kids who you love to hate, unless you actually go to Duke and are forced to like them.  Lots of points to lay on a neutral court.  We say Duke is like Notre Dame’s football team, overrated.  Take the inflated line.

Season opener for the Bulldogs so we should have a raucous crowd.  LA Tech returns studs Kyle Gibson and Magnum Rolle, who failed to get drafted after entering without agents.  Little Rock has won the previous two mathcups, but this year they only return a single starter from last years squad and are 0-3 on the road, although they have faced impressive opponents.  Nonetheless we like the more athletic and experienced team to pull this one out in their home opener.  And yes, Magnum Rolle uses Magnum XL condoms.

Sunday November 22, 2009 (2-4....a 1 point loss and a 2 point loss, Ouch!)

No Monster Plays this Sunday, just a bunch of bdougsports approved solid plays.  Go get em’

Jaguars -8.5 vs. Bills L

The Jags are on the rise and should be looking to making a push for the playoffs (aint gunna happen, but technically it could!), while the Bills just randomly fired their head coach after back to back losses.  A bit of an overreaction.  Anyways, the Bills should be in disarray, as even their captain Paul P. had no idea of the firing until an espn reporter told him.  The Bills D coordinator now needs to figure out how to run an entire team.  Look for a big drop off here.  This line is inflated due to the Jauron firing, but we ain’t scared.

Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets W

The first matchup of these two teams will prove to be much different than this meeting.  In the first meeting, the Jets were flying high, their defense was considered one of the best in the league and Sanchez wasn't making big mistakes.  The Patriots lost because Brady looked like dog poop and wasn't himself.  Moss was battling a sore back, and Welker didn't play.  Bottom line is their offense was not what it is right now.  Basically these teams are the exact opposites of what they were two months ago.  Jets are without Leon Washington and Kris Jenkins, keys to their running game and run defense.  Jets have also gone 1-5 ATS and SU their last six.  They stink.  Factor in that the Pats owe the Jets a good ass whoopin' and they should be focused on executing after last Sunday's debacle in the final two minutes, and we see a potential blowout.

Raiders +9.5 vs. Bengals W

The Raiders show up to play once every 3 weeks or so.  They are very difficult to predict, yet this week screams “show up” week.  Seriously, we’re not kidding.  Tank Ass Russell has been benched and his teammates are thrilled!  That teammate feedback on Gradkowski is great, and he should really light a fire under this Raiders team that clearly has talent.  Russell really was that bad, as he led the Raiders to an average of 118 pass yards a game.  Their secondary is great, and their rush defense is poor, but that is okay since Cedric Benson will not play in this one.    The Bengals just beat their division rival (Steelers) for a second time and now have to travel to Oakland to play a crappy team.  This screams let down.  Take out the Bengals crushing of the Bears and their biggest win was by 10 points.  The Bengals love close games.

Ravens +1 vs. Colts L

It's do or die time for the Ravens.  At the beginning of the year, people were jumping on their bandwagon for the Super Bowl.  If they lose this game, there will be six teams in the AFC with better records and a couple others with the same record.  If the Bengals win in Oakland, which is a pretty fair assumption (just don't tell Eagles fans) then they'll be 3 back of the Bengals with 6 to play.  YIKES.  They've come out of their bye and have dedicated themselves to playing great defense, allowing 24 points combined in their 3 games.  The Colts have struggled against good competition this year, especially the last 3 weeks, as they haven't covered a spread since blowing out the Rams.  They probably feel fortunate for winning on Sunday and at some point, they are going to lose.  The pressures of winning in the NFL week in and week out is tremendous and as the season goes along, teams facing undefeated teams give their best efforts trying to be the team to hand them their first loss of the year.

Vikings/Seahawks OVER 46 L

The Seahawks are pretty good on the road....NOT!  31, 38, 34.  Those are the points the Hawks have given up their last 3 road games.  Their defense really lays down for good offensive squads.  To keep up with the Vikings they will have to throw throw throw.  We could see a pick 6 and we definitely see a lot of clock stoppage.  Vikings score at least 30 and this one sails over.

Buccaneers +11.5 vs. Saints L

As we wrote in the Ravens/Colts game, teams facing an undeafeated team typically give their best effort and the undefeated team feels the pressure of winning.  It's science.  Colts haven't covered in 3 weeks, and neither have the Saints.  Coincidence?  We think not.  The Bucs meanwhile have been covering spreads like a mofo.  Well, at least since Josh Freeman was installed at QB, nearly pulling off the upset in back to back weeks.  They have a lot of confidence right now and are playing with house money basically.  Plus this is a divisional game, which usually means the teams are more familiar with each other and there's tons of emotion involved.  The Bucs have won 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Granted, these teams are not the same as the last two years, but a lot of the players are the same and that breeds confidence in the dogs here.  Can Tampa shock the world?  Yes, but probably not.  Grab the points.

Saturday November 21, 2009 (2-3)

Boston College -3 vs. North Carolina L

Tell us why over 75% of the public money is coming in on North Carolina versus a BC team that is undefeated at home and playing its last home game of the season?  Do we need to continue here?  Two 7-3 ACC teams battle it out in Chestnut Hill, and we’ll take the short home favorite who again is UNDEFEATED at home and 4-2 in conference.  Joe Public is likely in love with NC after their fluke win @ Virginia Tech.  Don’t be fooled as this is not a very great team.  They are very conservative, and their QB play is Jake Delhomme-esque.  Yeah, we said it.  BC please.

Northwestern +7 vs. Wisconsin W

The Wildcats apparently are for real.  We liked them two weeks ago against previously unbeaten Iowa and thought they'd be in for a let down against Illinois last week.  Well both of those games were on the road and now they come home to play for the first time since losing to Penn St. three weeks ago.  This is also their last game of the year, so they will give absolutely everything they've got here.  They've got an opportunistic defense that could force a couple of turnovers and keep the Badgers on their heels.  

Air Force +10 @ BYU L

BYU returns home after a narrow victory against a pathetic New Mexico team.  This is Air Forces’ last game of the regular season and its against a Mountain West rival so we expect full effort from them.  BYU has Utah on deck for the Holy War, as we like to call it ‘Crazy psycho Mormons vs. the Other People who live in Utah’.  BYU will be more focused for their season finale in that matchup then they will aginst a very solid Air Force team that has played tough on the road.  They got weeks ahead to rest for a stupid meaningless bowl game so they will be flying around.  Screw BYU.  You guys are 29 years old, get a job!

Middle Tennessee State -10 vs. Arkansas State W

We like Middle Tennessee State and you already knew that.  We like them a lot here.  They've played a really tough schedule this year and have won four in a row and covered each time.  Arkansas State sucks hard and they've 2-7 on the year.  Middle Tenn St. should be able to run the ball all over the Red Wolves and control the clock.  They will dominate this game.  DOMINATION!

Mississippi -4 vs. LSU L

Mississippi seems to be back in gear and will be loking for another SEC win to finish 2nd in the SEC West.  This will be snior night, which we love betting on.  We still think LSU is very overrated, as evident by their 8 point home win over LA Tech, who sucks on the road.  Two even teams here so we’ll take the home team on this emotional day.

Thursday November 19, 2009 (0-1)

Panthers -3 vs. Dolphins L (Jake Delhomme FAIL!)

Remember when Jake Delhomme threw a pick six late in the Dallas game to screw our Monster Play?  We sure as hell do, and will never trust Jake Delhomme.  HOWEVER, the Panthers have their run game back and really don’t need to rely on Jake the Fake anymore.  The Dolphins will have to travel on a short week after a close game with the Bucs.  Oh, and they lost Ronnie Brown who is certainly their MVP.  Ricky Williams is a great back and he will be in my starting fantasy lineup, but he is a traditional style back, where Ronnie Brown could run several different formations for the Phins.  The playbook will be shortened for the Phins this week, so we’ll back the improving home dog with 2 fresh backs that can light up the field.  Also, note that the Dolphins are one of the worst 2nd half teams in the league.  This is evident by blowing a 13 point lead against the lowly Bucs.  Not to brag, but we had the Bucs as a Monster Play last week....no big deal.

Wednesday November 18, 2009 (0-2)

            *Monster Play*

Thunder +11 @ Magic L

The Thunder are like the Bengals of the NBA; they are a good team under the public radar.  They crushed Orlando just a couple weeks ago and now the Magic are without Jameer Nelson!  Kevin Durant is a beast and Westbrook may be too quick for the Magic defenders.  This line should be around 4, but is 11 because the public love the Magic.  We like Magic too, just not the kind Criss Angel does.  We’ll gladly take double digit points with a 4-2 road team playing a team that just lost its emotional leader at the point.  This pick is not just because Nick has a boner for Kevin Durant; we really do like the matchup.

Pacers -7 vs. Knicks L (WTF happened in this game?)

The Pacers head home after a meeting with the Nets and the Knicks are on 5 days rest.  Not the situation you generally like to back in the NBA, but the Knicks are epically bad.  They play absolutely zero defense, and the Pacers, well, they play slightly better defense.  The Pacers last matchup against the Knicks was on the 4th, also the 2nd game of a back to back and they beat the Knicks by 12 with several key players fouled out at the end.  The Pacers may get Troy Murphy back, who they did not have in their previous matchup.  The Knicks could also get Eddy Curry back, who also doesn’t enjoy playing defense.  We’ll side with the decent home team over the 1 win team that can’t play on the road.

Late Pick Addition Updated 3:30 PST Saturday November 14, 2009 (1-0)

Nevada -12.5 vs. Montana State  W

Nevada has a new head coach who is implementing a run and gun style which will bode well for stud players Luke Babbitt and Armon Johnson.  Nevada is a great team and play well at home.  Montana State is decent but will be without 2 starters and only 8 men dressed!  A couple of their key backups are sick and suspended.  We’ll lay the big points no problem!  This game starts at 10pm EST.  Jump on it!

Sunday November 15, 2009 (3-2)

               *Monster Play*                

Buccaneers +10 @ Miami W

The Bucs have stunk all year and they can’t stop the run.  Joseph Public knows this and has jumped all over the Dolphins.  All the Dolphins do is run and run well.  The Bucs give up 163+ rushing yards per game, and even in their lone win last week they gave up 170 yards on the ground.  Sooo are we freakin stupid in taking the Bucs?  Negative followers, the NFL is more than just matchups and statistics.  The Bucs finally got a win and should have a newfound confidence or at least hope with their new QB Josh Freeman.  He made some good plays and I think the vets on the Bucs squad will come together to help the young buc out.   Miami is coming off a slew of difficult games.  Four of their last five games were in the division and they also played Indy, San Diego, and New Orleans.  This will be a breather game for them as the lowly Bucs come to town.  Miami will be tired and unfocused for this one.  On the other end, every game means a lot to the one win Bucs.  Public perception is also that the Miami Defense is solid.  Well, they are wrong because Miami has given up at least 23 points in all of their games.  If you don’t like the Bucs here, take the over (43) as we really like that play as well.

Bengals +7 @ Steelers W

The Bengals are good!  They play spirited defense under Zimmer and they have been clicking on all cylinders on offense.  Ochocinco is good again and Cedric Benson has become a beast.  The Bengals beat the Steelers in their first matchup, so we think the Steelers seek revenge here and potentially take the win.  However, with the offensive power the Bengals have 7 points seems like a lot.  We think this line should be around 4 or 5. Steelers are a much better team than they were a few weeks ago, and Mendenhall is becoming a great back,  Bengals are undefeated on the road and playing with a ton of confidence.  With the Steelers coming off a Monday night game, perhaps they are a bit slower and tighter in the legs.  We’ll take our shot with the dog.

Jaguars +7 @ Jets W

MJD is a beast and he has proven that he is capable of carrying this team.  He's also proven he can run on anybody averaging 5.1 YPC.  The beginning of the year saw the Jets as a good defensive team.  After the first loss to Miami, Captain Fat - aka Rex Ryan - ripped his defense and they haven't really done well since losing 4 of 5.  They are without Kris Jenkins, a big run stuffer, and it has shown.  Dirty Sanchez has been awful after a hot start.  Bottom line is the Jets are not 7 points better than the Jags who have won 4 of 6.  We like the points here.

Saints -14 @ Rams L

Let's see...arguably the best team in the league against arguably the worst team in the league.  The Rams are seriously over-matched here and the Saints should take full advantage of it.  Rams are coming off a bye so they've had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Steven Jackson should get his yardage against a defense that has struggled against the run the last three weeks.  Saints have talent, Rams not so much.  The gap between the two is huge.  That's what she said.

Falcons -1.5 @ Panthers L

Yes, another road team covering a spread, simply because they are the better team here.  The Falcons have lost to the Saints, Patriots and Cowboys, three of the better teams in the league with a combined record of 20-4.  They've won when they were supposed to, which is a sign of what a good team does.  The Panthers have picked it up the last couple of weeks focusing on running the ball and not allowing Jake Delhomme to shoot them all in the foot with his awesome QB play.  Atlanta won the first match-up and we look for them to sweep the season series.

Saturday November 14, 2009 (3-3)

Baylor +23.5 vs. Texas L

It's usually pretty tough to gauge a spread as large as this one, and this is no different.  The Longhorns have been rolling this year and have traditionally taken care of business against Baylor.  However, they are just 1-5 ATS this year as 14+ point favorites.  Baylor is 3-0 ATS as double digit dogs.  The Longhorns have a very good run defense (#1 in FBS) but Baylor is a passing team, so that won't matter.  This is definitely a bigger game for Baylor than Texas, as the Bears are at home and is coming off a big win at Mizzou, so they should be pretty confident.  We don't expect an upset, but do expect a competitive game.

Missouri -1 @ Kansas State W

Yes Kansas State is undefeated at home, but lets take a look at their opponents: Massachusetts, Tennessee Tech, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Kansas.  The only decent opponent there is Kansas and they lost 3 straight prior to the K State matchup. Also, that is a big rivalry game that as we know can go either way. Plain and simple, their numbers are skewed.  Missouri is coming off a home loss to Baylor so they should be motivated.  K State has lost 4 out of their last 5 games following their matchup with Kansas.  I expect them to be flat and I expect the better athletes of Missouri to take advantage.  Some weird line movement here too.  We like!

Notre Dame +7 @ Pittsburgh W

Why do we like betting on Irish games?  Because we think they're easy to predict.  They're just 2-7 ATS this year, but one of those wins came as the only time they've been a dog this year, against USC.  They lost last week and are likely pissed off and looking to rebound.  Pitt won in South Bend last year too, so there is the revenge element on Notre Dame's side.  Plus, Pitt has West Virginia on deck in two weeks so there may be a slight look ahead for them as WVU-Pitt is one of the biggest rivalries in College Football.  The Irish have had all except two games this year decided by a TD or less, both blowout wins.  We can't believe we're saying this, but bet on Notre Dame this week.

South Carolina +17 vs. Florida W

Not much to say here.  Rivalry game, old ball coach versus his old team, Florida has already clinched the SEC East, this is South Carolinas biggest game left, and South Carolina plays ridiculous defense at home.  We’ll take the points please.

Arizona +1 @ California L

Cal got their dicks slapped last week against Oregon State and the Bears are now 0-3 against Top 25 teams this year.  They beat bad teams and look bad against good teams.  Their best player Javid Best is out.  The Wildcats have won 3 in a row and it would have been 5 if not for a miracle late TD by Washington.  We also think Cal may be looking ahead to Stanford next week, another big rivalry game.  Since college students don't get paid to focus like NFL, they are more likely to be thinking about next week than NFL players.  Plus we think CFB is a more emotional game than the NFL and the Bears just don't seem like they'll have the fight for this one.

Illinois -5 vs. Northwestern L

Northwestern just won their Super Bowl in crushing undefeated Iowa’s dream.  We saw it coming as that was our Monster Play.  Yeah, we rock.  Now we look to bet against Northwestern in a very flat spot.  On the other side Illinois is finally looking like the team they were supposed to after a horrendous start.  Juice Williams is doubtful, and that might be a good thing as they play better without him.  Besides the Iowa win which was helped by Stanzi being injured, Northwestern lost 2 out of their other 3 road games.  This is Illinois’ last conference game of the year.  After 2 straight wins we think their confidence will have them cruise to a 7 point victory over drunk Northwestern players still recovering from there post Iowa parties.

Thursday November 12, 2009 (1-0)

One of our top plays last week was the Cards over the Bears.  We will continue to sell the Bears here.  They’re defense is sub-par and something is just not right with their offense.  They have all the weapons a team can desire, but it just ain’t workin.  Maybe because Jay Cutler is emo?  We dunno.  But seriously, the Niners have lost 4 in a row and we don’t think this team will make it 5 on a weeknight at home.  This is a short week for the Bears to travel a couple time zones.  Great situation for the Niners to get back on track.  Matchup wise these are two very similar teams.  I expect the home field advantage to go a long way here.  Cue Emo Cutler tears.

Wednesday November 11, 2009 (1-0)

Suns -5.5 vs. Hornets W

We may be jumping on the Suns too late as the public now realizes how hot they are.  This team has really impressed us on the road, and coming home of a 5 game road stint the Suns should be looking forward to playing for the home crowd.  Beyond Chris Paul the Hornets are not that great.  Paul was injured last game but expected to play.  Still, the ankle injury could slow him down.  Their bench sucks and they are just 1-4 on the road.  We’ll roll the dice with the hot team against a bad road team.  Again, we just hope we’re not too late with the Suns.

Sunday November 8, 2009 (4-3)

Bears kill the Browns last week as we expected (Monster Play), and the Cardinals lose big in a let down situation.  Don’t expect the same here.  The Cards are the better team, hands down.  If you watched the Bears/Browns matchup you would have seen that it was a matter of the Browns sucking and not the Bears playing well.  The Bears offense can not seem to get rolling as they continue to settle for field goals.  Their defense showed 2 weeks ago that they can get torched by the pass.  The Bengals WRs are good, but not as good as Larry, Anquan and Breaston.  Matt Forte hasn’t been able to find running room except for when they played the lowly Browns and Lions.  Cardinals will be looking to bounce back  after their pathetic play against Carolina.   Don’t worry about the East Coast thing as the Cards marched into NY and pulled out a win.

We saw two divisional games with double digit spreads last week where the Dog covered both times.  So, ten plus points in a rivalry game and we're taking the favorite?!?  Yes, and here's why:  After getting surprised by the Wildcat last year, the Patriots held the Phins to just 62 yards rushing in the rematch.  The Dolphins start two rookie corners and essentially a rookie QB.  Between Brady picking apart the inexperienced secondary and Belichick game planning for Henne, the Dolphins overall inexperience will show in this one.  Also, the Patriots are ridiculous coming off a bye.  We originally looked at Miami here, but everything is pointing to the Pats here.

This should be a great game to watch and both teams will be amped.  We simply think the Eagles are the hotter, more talented team.  With a short price at home, we’ll take our shot.  The Cowgirls have been hot as well but they beat up the pathetic Seahawks with a depleted line and a Falcons team looking ahead to the Saints.  Westbrook is back for this game so expect plenty of screens followed by bombs to Jackson and Maclin.   The Cowboys do not have the secondary to run with the Eagles wideouts.  We like the coaching advantage as well.  Now go get your Campbells chunky soup and watch Donovan do his silly dance.

The Redskins aka Foreskins have the 5th ranked defense in the league, both scoring D and yardage wise.  Too bad their offense sucks.  Good news is they've had two weeks to prepare for the Falcons, so there could be some improvement on the offensive side of the ball.  We're not saying there will be improvement, but there definitely could be.  Bottom line is the 'Skins will put forth a tremendous effort this week.  Atlanta put a huge effort into their big divisional game last week, but they've now lost two in a row.  Sometimes teams that aren't too familiar with each other play a little uncharacteristic (see:  Colts vs. 49ers last week).  We think that they'll win, but it won't be by margin.

The Chiefs suck!  Hey so don’t the Jags!  However, this is a good spot to take the horrid Chiefs. Coming off a bye week the Cheifs were presented with a new sign at their stadium that read something along the lines of ‘Losers assemble in small groups and complain about coaches and decisions.  Winners assemble as a TEAM and win.’  Something like that.  Anyways, we’ll take the team coming off a bye that is making a statement by suspending their starting running back (who sucks).  On the other end the Jags have fizzled and had a tough time with the Rams at home.  The brilliant Jags only ran MJD 7 times.  He got 170+ yards!  Run him more!

West Coast teams traveling east usually don't play well.  But...that only applies to 1 pm eastern games, this is a late game so that theory goes out the window.  The Chargers offense is one of the better offenses in the league.  Well, actually their passing offense is one of the best in the league, too bad LT and company can't run the ball.  Good thing for them because the Giants pass D is not exactly a strength.  And the Giants are in shambles right now.  After coming out like gang busters this year (5-0 start), they've now lost three in a row and they weren't competitive games either losing by 21, 23 and 7 at home.  5 points is such a weird spread, we'll grab the points.

Last week the Texans did exactly what we thought they would.....for a half.  We had the Bills and all looked good until the second half when the Texans decided to show up.  This team has turned the corner after starting off L, W, L, W....  The Colts are likely the better team but they are now without Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden.  Lose 3 starting secondary members before you play a pass happy team like the Texans?  Look to see Andre Johnson and the gang tear up this secondary if the Houston line can contain Freeney.  The Texans will treat this game as a statement game, and the talent differential could shock the Colts who have played mediocre teams as of late.  Betting against Peyton is never easy, but 9 points is a bit too much to bet against a team that can score.  Look for Steve ‘Slippery hands’ Slaton to run with some anger after being benched last week after his fumble.  We also like the over in this game.

Saturday November 7, 2009 (4-1)

                     *Monster Play*

Hawkeyes had a miracle cover last week as a 17 point chalk, were down 10 going into the fourth and ended up outscoring Indiana 28-0 in the 4th.  They've been money against the spread but for some reason we just don't trust them.  Northwestern out outright at Iowa last year as 10 point dogs and two of the last three with both wins coming at Iowa.  Iowa has Ohio St. on deck.  Northwestern needs one more win to become bowl eligible and go to back to back bowls since '95-'96 when they lost to Peyton Manning in the Citrus Bowl.  Yeah, they've sucked for a while, they're hungry now and they're turning a corner.  Grab the points.

The only thing good about FAU was QB Rusty Smith.  Well, he is now out for the year, so lets jump on UAB.  The spread has jumped from -4 to -6.5/7, and rightfully so.  With their QB out and this being a non-conference game, we see FAU laying an egg.  UAB will have more to play for as they are coming home after 3 straight road games, including a solid win @ UTEP.

Navy always plays the Irish tough, 11-5 ATS since '92, including 8-0 ATS @ ND.  The Irish are consistently overvalued in the marketplace, as evidenced by the 2-6 ATS record this year.  Coming off a loss last week to Temple, they should be fired up for this rivalry game.  Navy is not afraid of the big boys in College Football, playing Ohio St. down to the wire in the horseshoe, beating Wake Forest a couple of weeks ago and accumulating a 6-3 so far on the year should prove that this is a solid team.  It may seem repetitive but grab dem points.

Before we tell you how much we love Duke, let us say this SCREAMS trap game.  This spread opened up UNC -7.5, yet with the majority of the money on Duke, the line jump all the way up to 10.  Unless there were some huge $$ bets on UNC, this is just one of the more sketchy line moves you will see.  Duke has been playing lights out, particularly through the air.  Thaddeus Lewis is a beast, and UNC showed in the Florida State game that they get zero pass rush and can’t stop the pass.  UNC doesn’t beat good teams by this margin! Getting 10 points seems like a gift....which is why we are hesitant.

Let me get this straight, Alabama barely gets by a decent Tennessee team and now people think they aren’t worthy of a top 3 ranking?  Come on now, even Florida has had their hiccups.  LSU’s offense is no good.  Wow, they just beat up Tulane.  This is the same team that repeatedly got burned by a simple dive play by a conservative Florida team (Tebow injured). LSU also has no idea what they want to do on offense.  Their QB play is bad.  Yes they can beat up on poor teams because they are athletic, but I just don’t see anything special with this offense.  Now we’re going to give Saban 2 weeks to prepare for this mediocre offense after much criticism about the Tennessee slim victory?  Alabama will keep LSU out of the endzone just like Florida did.  McElroy will be fired up to shut the doubters up and have his best game in the last few weeks.  Roll Tide.....and thank the public for moving this spread from 9 to 7. 

Thursday November 5, 2009 (0-0-1)

The Hokies are coming off two straight losses and whatever national title hopes they may have had are out the window.  The Pirates are coming in hot right now, winning four of five.  They've met the past two years, each winning one with East Carolina shocking the football world last year by beating the Hokies on opening night of the season.  The Pirates are decent against the run, 27th rush defense in FBS yielding 3.38 YPC.  If they can contain the run, the Hokies don't have a dynamic passing offense to move the ball.  Plus, we love backing home dogs under the lights during the week.  Pirates keep it within the number.

Wednesday November 4, 2009 (0-1)

The Wizards are an underrated team with a healthy team back (with the exception of Jamison).  The Heat had a lot of trouble late in the game against the athletic Suns last night and we could see the same here.  This is simply a statement game for the Wizards as this will be aired on ESPN.  They want to show everyone they are a contender this year after the disastrous 2008 campaign.

Tuesday November 3, 2009 (0-1)

Two 3-0 teams meet up in Miami tonight.  Should be a good game, and we like the home team to come out victorious.  Why?  The Heat play defense, and the Suns still don’t.  The Heat are tougher, the Suns are flashier.  Dwayne Wade is healthy, and Jermaine O’Neal is being a bad ass.  In fact he will be playing with a  broken nose.  This concerns me, but come on he’s a thug!  Although the Suns shouldn’t look past this game, they do have a big one against the Magic tomorrow night.  I’ll stick with D Wade and the gang.

Monday November 2, 2009 (1-0)

This is another case of the books inflating lines due to favorites covering numbers with ease lately.  We saw the Raiders keep it close with the Charger yesterday, and we do not see why we wouldn’t see similar here.  Any time you can get a 10+ points in a divisional game you have to take a look.  The Falcons are no chumps.  They had tough road games at New England and at Dallas, however they romped the Niners in San Fran.  The losses to NE and DAL do not look as bad though because both the Pats and Cowgirls were coming in mad off a loss.  Of course last week in Dallas, the Falcons may have been looking ahead to this huge matchup.  Roddy White and Matt Ryan should be able to make the blitzing Saints pay for it with some big gains, and the Saints struggled with the power run game of the Phins last week.  Hopefully Turner can get it going to help out Ryan.  We think the Saints win this one because they are great at home, but it should be close.

Sunday November 1, 2009 (3-3)

              *Monster Play*

The Bears got crushed last week @ Cincy.  After playing competitively at Atlanta they just flat sucked it up.  As we have mentioned plenty of times when good teams have a bad loss they generally bounce back big.  After a loss to Green Bay da Bears beat the Steelers.  Now they get to feast on the lowly Browns who have lost all their games to the tune of 14, 21, 31, 3, 3, 13, and 28.  Yeah, they are goood!  Seriously though, after the pathetic Defensive performance by the Bears we expect them to really focus in this week and use the Browns to show they’re still contenders.  We think this game will be similar to the Bears Lions matchup a couple weeks ago when the Bears pulled away from the Lions for a 14 point victory.  Mangina’s Browns are worse than the Lions, and thats sad.  Bears by 20.

This was close to being the Monster Play.  We have said over and over the Texans are Jeckyl and Hyde.  Finally they won 2 straight but it wasn’t easy as they made Alex Smith look like Steve Young.  The Texans defense is terrible and their rush offense is fair.  Their pass offense is what gets them through games, but with Andre Johnson banged up and Schaub going to a cold weather city, we see a decline in their play.  Their game plan will also play into the Bills strength which is their pass defense (3rd in the league).  Yes we are betting on Ryan Fitzpatrick and no we are not crazy!  Besides the match ups we mentioned, the Texans have the Colts on deck.  They will not be fully motivated for the Bills.  Bills win an ugly outright game.

Giants D will likely be pissed off after getting dominated against New Orleans and losing to the Cardinals last week at home.  These teams are even on paper but we think the difference is that Andy Reid allows Michael Vick to go out there for 8-10 plays a game to justify his $1.5 mil salary.  Those plays don't work and it costs the offense.  G-Men have 16 sacks this year and should get to Chunky Soup easily.  Brian Westbrook is likely out after after blacking out and suffering a concussion last week.  Big day for Sheli and the Giants.

Is Alex Smith for real?  We heard that he re-committed himself to the game in the off season and felt the best he has since he was the number one pick in the draft.  He sure looked really good last week against the Texans.  Mike Singletary is coaching this entire week with his pants off, so they're gonna be fired up for this game.  Both teams have been money in the bank for gamblers, SF 4-1-1 ATS, Indy is 5-1.  They covered by 1-point against the the Phins earlier in the year in a game they held the ball for 15 minutes.  Their lone loss ATS was opening day against Jacksonville in a low scoring slug fest.  Not going to say it's going to be a slug fest, but don't be surprised if the Niners cover the number controlling the ball with legitimate play makers in Gore, Vernon Davis and Crabtree.  BTW:  No surprise that 95% of the money is on the Colts.

Okay so we are going against our own Rule #204 of betting by taking the Raiders.  The reason is because this line is just ridiculous.  Yes the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, but they have shown they can upset anyone with their big win over the Eagles.  They have tons of talent but a bad QB, little confidence, and an owner that calls the plays.  We expect Tom Cable and John Marshall to ignore crazy Al and put together a game plan to compete with the Chargers, who wil be looking forward to their upcoming games @ the Giants, vs. Eagles, and @ Denver.  The Raiders proved they can dominate the line of scrimmage versus a very soft Chargers team.  With that gut wrenching loss in Week 1 the Raiders will be seeking revenge big time.  Jamarcus sucks, but he was called out by Cable (who hasn’t done so all year), so I expect him to be less terrible than usual.  Seymour will have the Raiders ready to go and the Chargers will not take the Raiders seriously.  We’ll take 17 points in a rivalry game anytime!

Both teams are coming off byes so they each should be well rested.  If you've been following us at all this year, then you know that we love the Ravens over plays.  They are no longer a defensive team with limited offensive capabilities and are a top 5 offense in terms of both yards per game and points per game.  The Broncos have shown that they are a stellar defensive team, especially in the second half of games.  The Ravens have struggled against the run the past two weeks and with Denver's stellar offensive line, there's potential they could be gashed for some big gains by Knowshon Moreno.  What we're hoping for here is for Baltimore to come out like gangbusters considering they need this game BAD after 3 straight losses that came down to late in the 4th quarter.