Saturday October 31, 2009 (5-3)

The Bearcats are like the Rodney Dangerfield of College Football.  NO RESPECT.  Keep it up mainstream media, keep talking about ALL the other unbeatens except Cincinnati, please.  Tony Pike may or may not play, but it shouldn't matter, the backup QB Collaros played really well last week in a 41-10 drubbing of Louisville.  Brian Kelly has this team running on all cylinders with no signs of a letdown.  Syracuse was a team that we liked to back earlier in the year, but this is not a good spot for them.  They found a winning formula running the ball last week effectively taking the ball out of Paulus' hands (good move!).  The issue with that is that the Cats have held opponents to less than 1.7 YPC on three separate occasions this year and each time their opponent rushed 30+ times.  Hence they stop the run, force Paulus to throw picks and then roll to an easy victory.  Cincy has won the last two years by 20+ and we see the same this time around.

Nothing much to say on this one.  Huge rivalry game, neutral field.  The Gators have been winning ugly lately and not covering spreads.  The Bulldogs are competitive enough to keep this one in the number.  Follow the rules of gambling, you'll make money.

UVA has been an extremely weird team.  They looked like one of the worst teams in the country early on and then pulled off big wins (scoreboard-wise) against North Carolina (Chokers!), Indiana, and Maryland.  They followed those wins up with a crappy performance against Georgia Tech.  Bottom line is their offense sucks.  They have not grasped the spread attack, and will have to win games with their D.  Duke on the other hand has looked hot.  Thaddeus Lewis has been a beast.  Even in the rain vs. Maryland last week he threw for 371 yards.  If it weren’t for the turnovers they would have crushed Maryland.   Virginia may win this one, but who are they to be 7 point favorites?  Duke has covered their last two matchups, and we don’t see why they don’t make it three.  P.S. Wouldn’t it be awesome if Eric Mangina coached Vir-gina?

Neither of these teams has played anybody great, but we will continue to bet against LA Tech on the road.  They are winless on the road and are now on their 2nd straight road matchup.  Idaho has surprised everyone with their best season since 1994.  They are a team that can score, and are undefeated at home.  With a return from a terrible performance @ Nevada (gave up 70 points), we expect the team to gather themselves and perform well back at home.  Last week we barely held onto a spread win with Utah State over LA Tech.  However, the game wasn’t as close as the 2 point outcome.  LA Tech scored two late TDs in the 4th to make the game respectable.  Vandals move to 7-2 this Saturday….that sounds weird!

Kentucky’s starting QB Mike Hartline is out again, but that shouldn’t matter.  He has missed the last two games, and Kentucky has responded big by utilizing 3 different QB’s and running the ball like crazy.  At Auburn and versus UL Monroe, the Wildcats rushed for 282 and 185 yards, respectively.  Clearly they have the athletes to score points.  Defensively Kentucky is decent.  They have let up a lot of rush yards to the big boys, but have kept the little boys from the scoreboard.  Mississippi State has a great rush offense and a terrible pass offense.  I have little faith in their QB, and their pass defense is a liability (check the Houston game).  MSU has had 8 turnovers the last 3 games, and are on the road after a tough defeat at the hands of Tim ‘Baby Jesus’ Tebow and the Gators.  This should be a down spot for them, and in addition they host Alabama the following week.  Perhaps they are looking forward to upsetting another top SEC contender and won’t completely show up for an underrated Kentucky squad.

Tech is on an absolute tear right now wining their last five and covering each time.  Option offense so all they do is run run run which is something that Vandy has a serious time stopping, since they're ranked 85 out of 119 in rush defense overall in FBS and is 2nd to last in the SEC.  Their two wins have come against Rice, who may be the worst team in college football (think the Rams of CFB) and West Carolina, a weak FCS team.  They put everything they had into beating South Carolina last week only to let a 4th quarter lead slip away and fall 4 points short.

Navy will again be without their two starting running backs, QB Dobbs and RB Curry.  They squeaked by a win last week vs. Wake Forest, but barely.  In fact Wake had the ball with a couple minutes left down just 3.  Great defense carried Navy as they had a first time starter at QB.  He did not even attempt a single pass!  This will only be his second game, and they will face Temple who bodes the 15th ranked rush defense allowing only 97 yards per game.  Temple is on a 5 game win streak (so is Navy), including a strong road win @ Toledo.  Temple has had the advantage of seeing Navy the last 3 years so they are familiar with their boring run run run philosophy.  Temple should be able to contain the option with no pass threat from the sophomore Navy QB and stay within this number.  Go Owls.  Hooty hoo!

Huge game for two similarly talented teams.  As such, we gotta go with the home dog under the lights.  Statistically both these teams are very similar with USC having a slight offensive edge.  Oregon lost its first big primtetime matchup @ Boise so they will be amped up to redeem themselves against media darling USC.  Oregon has been hot lately and with an impressive road victory against Washington the week prior (in a letdown situation), we are confident this team has its head on straight.  Of course the public money is coming in on USC, because the public loves them as much as ESPN enjoys doing gay little stories about the USC team singing songs.  Home dog wins here.

Thursday October 29, 2009 (0-1)

The Spurs are a veteran team that reloaded in the off season with the trade for Richard Jefferson, drafting DeJuan Blair and brought in Antonio McDyess.  Ginobli aka "the flopper" is healthy, Timmy is healthy, this team is loaded.  The Bulls were a great home team last year, and Rose should progress in year 2 in the league.  Tony Parker matches up pretty favorably, both super quick PGs.  They lost Ben Gordon to free agency.  The front court mismatch is too much to overlook here.

Sunday October 25, 2009 (1-4-1)  First losing NFL week of the year. =(

We’ve had a great feel for the Texans lately, inlcuding a big win on them as a dog last week.  Bottom line is this team sucks when they are supposed to win and dominate when they are supposed to lose.  They also cannot string 2 games together, as evidence by their schedule: L, W, L, W, L, W.  Nice!  The 49ers are coming off an embarrassing loss followed by a bye week.  You can bet your ass Singletary beat their asses.  The Niners will be ready to roll, meanwhile the Texans will be content with winning the last week (this looks like another 8-8 season for them).  The Niners know how to play on the road with a big win @ Arizona, and a last second loss to the Mega-Douches.  The Niners get Frank Gore back and greedy Crabtree, who can only help.  With possible attention to Crabtree, Josh Morgan and Vernon Davis could have big games.  Potential outright victory for the dog.

The Cowgirls are coming off a bye but that won't matter.  Atlanta has played some decent defense, holding all but one of their opponents to 20 or less.  The Cowgirls D should give way to Matty Ryan and the gang.  He's only been sacked twice, so the OL has done an awesome job. Dallas has zero to no pass rush. Wade Philips is a bumbling moron that acts more like a fan during the game than the head coach.  If not for that late Jake Delhomme pick six (yes we remember bad beats), they'd be 1-4 ATS.  They are constantly favored and are an average team frankly.  Falcons are for real.  Cowboys...NOT SO MUCH!

This game just doesn’t mean much to the Saints.  Yes they would like to remain undefeated, but that just won’t happen this year. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week and the Saints come in off a huge win versus the Giants and have a divisional game (Falcons) next week.  The Dolphins almost pulled out a victory over the Colts a couple weeks ago, and we should be able to see similar energy in this one.  Big Statement game.  The Saints are a blitzing team this year which could bode well for the run happy Dolphins.  If not, Chad Henne has proven he can make the long pass...he’ll just need to keep it away from Darren Sharper.  This is simply an NFL situation we love to jump on.  A publicly backed team with a seemingly easy line, and in a sandwich situation.  People may be shocked after this one.

It's the game across the pond in Wembley Stadium, WOOHOO!  The Patriots are coming off a historically good performance, aka good ole fashioned ass whoopin' at the expense of the Titans, who appeared to not be trying at some points.  The Bucs are 0-6 and have lost 4 of the 6 by 13+ points.  They've been "spunky" with Josh Johnson at QB, but let's face it, their offense sucks, their defense sucks.  The Patriots are going into a bye next week, so the focus will be on executing this week and building off the performance from last week.  There's also a significant advantage in the coaching department, Raheem Morris is no match for The Hooded One.

Giants coming off a huge loss should bounce back with a win.  The Cardinals meanwhile come in after a couple easy wins.  Yes the Texans game was close, but it was a blowout early.  The Cards will not be able to get the pressure on Eli that they got on Hasselback.  Eli will have a field day with the mediocre Cardinals pass D. Kurt Warner has looked great but we think he’s walking into a buzzsaw with an angry Giants D.  They have 42 defensive ends that can get to Warner.  With the home crowd, a bad taste in their mouth, and a West coast team traveling east, this one has Giants written all over it.

The Packers straight up dominated the Lions last week so Joe Public will be backing the Pack and no surprise here, they are pounding them at the book to the tune of 95%.  That's ridiculous.  Las Vegas wins in the end and so far this year they've been losing with the exception being last week when only 3 favorites covered. The Browns are 3-0 ATS with Derek Anderson under center.  They got straight up embarrassed on the defensive side of the ball giving up 540 yards of offense to the Steelers.  The defense will be fired up in the Dog Pound where the last time they played was an overtime loss to the Bengals.

Saturday October 24, 2009 (4-4)

This is not the Duke Football team of years past.  These guys fight hard, have talent, and the coaching has been solid.  Duke is coming off a bye week after a great upset win over NC State.  Thanks to the bye, we should not have an emotional letdown here.  Thaddeus Lewis has been blowing it up the last 3 games throwing for 9 TDs and 0 INTs.  Maryland meanwhile is letting up 47 points per game on the road.  There last away game was a 10 point loss @ Wake Forest, and the game wasn’t even that close.  Maryland scored a couple late TDs to make it the game look closer, and receive the back door cover.   Duke will throw the ball all over the Terps.  Lay the points with the basketball school….just this once.

We like the Huskies.  We like them a lot grabbing 11.  They're very good at home (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), and those games aren't against cupcakes, LSU, USC, Idaho (who's legit at 6-1), and Arizona.  They lost a heart breaker last week and could be looking for a bounce back.  After losing a heart breaker to Notre Dame, they came home and took care of business against Arizona.  Oregon is on fire right now and is blowing out opponents.  Problem is, the public knows this and sees the Ducks as a bet on team, hence the big spread.  Plus they may be looking towards the match-up with USC next week.

LA Tech is a great home team and a terrible away team.  Utah State is the similar.  Utah State is just 1-5, however they have had some real tough matchups, including 4 away games in 6 weeks.  Their 2 home games included a win over Southern Utah and a 3 point loss against a renewed Nevada team.  Their record is a bit deceiving with losses against Utah, BYU, Nevada, and Texas A&M; and they average 440 yards of offense per game.  This team puts up points, the only problem is stopping the opposition.  Usually teams play better defense at home with the crowd backing them.  La Tech has won the last two meetings, so the Aggies are out for revenge.  We think Utah State gets up big for this game and takes it to a team that has showed little effort in road trips.

Another classic perception vs. reality spread.  The perception is that Alabama is this powerhouse team that absolutely destroys their opponents and Tennessee is the doormat of the SEC.  Reality is that the Crimson Tide are undoubtedly a very good team that overpowers most of their opponents.  However, we saw Tennessee stay with Florida until late and see something similar in this one.  Greg McElroy has struggled for the Tide recently and Monte Kiffin is a master defensive game planner who will frustrate the hell out of him.  Mark Ingram has had two consecutive career games and we don't see a third in a row.  The Vols offense shouldn't put up too many points against a vaunted Bama D, but they smoked Georgia the last time they played and have had two weeks to prepare for this one.  Rule #85, be wary of double digit SEC spreads.  Leagues are way too competitive and dog covers more often than not.

Penn State has such an easy schedule this year with 8 home games and only 4 road trips.  This will be their 2nd road game of the year, with their first coming against an awful Illinois squad.  Michigan is a big step up in class, and you know they will be up for this game after the beating they received from PSU last year.  Michigan’s biggest loss was by 6 points.  Although this may be their toughest opponent to date, I think they should be in for another 3 point decision.  No look ahead alert for either team.  Michigan had a nice tune up game last week against Delaware State.  We smell an outright win for this dog.

KSU can run the ball and Colorado still can’t stop the run, especially on the road.  Colorado just gave everything they had in a big upset over Kansas.  Now they head on the road in line for a major letdown.  Colorado has made the change at QB (finally), and they seemed to get a spark from that, however all flames burn out eventually.  KSU by a TD.

We think Wake Forest is the better team.  Besides playing Ohio State down to the wire, Navy hasn’t played anyone special.  Navy comes in off an overtime win and Wake comes in off an embarrassing loss to Clemson.  We look for a big bounceback effort from Skinner and the gang.  Oh, and Dobbs (QB) is questionable for Navy.  Wake understands the Navy rush game having played them twice last year.  Wake has the better athletes and we expect it to show here.  Woof woof, doggy dog!

Conventional wisdom may say to bet against BC on the road as they've struggled so far this year.  Well we aren't conventional and we like that.  Notre Dame is everyone and their mom's favorite team, meaning that they're overrated.  We've said this before.  They put absolutely everything they had into beating USC last week.  Other than their opening game against Nevada, no game has been decided by more than 7.  BC has won the last two years and this one should come down to the wire in the 4th quarter.

Thursday October 22, 2009 (0-1)

Short home favorite on a weeknight.  For some reason 70% of the public money is coming in on Florida State?  Why?  Their defense has been horrendous.  The coaches have said this is their fastest defense in years…..well, sprinters can’t make tackles.  This will be one of NC’s biggest games of the year as this up and coming squad gets a rare nationally televised game.  Florida States can pass the ball, but pass defense is NCs #1 asset, allowing only 125 pass yards a game.  Granted they have mostly faced running teams, they did recently face a spread passing team in Virginia and held them to just 148 pass yards.  After a couple losses, NC had its tune up game against Georgia Southern…in perfect time for this matchup.  Both teams come in off a bye so no advantage there.  Take the short home fav in a statement game.

Sunday October 19, 2009 (4-2)

                        *Monster Play*

The Seahawks are a completely different team with Matty Hasselbeck under center.  They are also a much stronger team at home.  In fact, they had a chance to beat the Bears at home without EAS man Matt Hasselbeck (19-25 loss).  Their other home games, both shutouts, although they were against week competition.  With this being a division game it should be hard fought, but the home team has won this matchup 9 out of the last 11 meetings.  The Cardinals almost blew a 21 point lead versus the Texans, further proving their lack mental toughness.  TJ Whosyamamma finally got it going, and the Seahawks appear to be close to full strength.  The Cards have no run game, however the ageless wonder Kurt Warner has been on fire.  The Seahawks will put more pressure on him than the sorry Texans and Jags Defense could and force him to make a couple weak arm throws.  Lay the points with confidence….when the Hawks travel to Cards, get ready to lay the points with the home team again.  We like this game at -3, but shop around and you can find a few 2.5’s.

Ravens are 3-2 to the over, with one of those being a 34-3 victory that had a total of 38.5 (remember that one bdougsports followers, we were really pissed about that one), so in reality they should be 4-1 to the over.  And guess what the MegaDouches are?  That's right, 4-1 to the over.  Both of these teams like to score points, and neither defense is what we thought they were.  We see a lot of airing it out in this one and each team scoring in the twenties.  The Ravens are hungry and will be looking for blood.  You never want to bet against a good team coming off tough back to back losses, but we think that they safer play here is the over.

Bill Belichick’s Patriots coming off a loss….do we need to say more?  The Pats are money the next week after a loss, and the Titans just received a demoralizing loss against their divisional foe, the Colts.  Stop believing this is the same team from last year and that they ‘have to win a game eventually’.  Yes they will win games, just not now.  Their tails are tucked between their legs and the angry Pats are ready to capitalize.  Potential blowout here.

We don't care if it IS the Chiefs, why the hell are the Redskins a 6.5 point favorite?!  They've shown over the past few weeks that they do not have a dynamic offense and should not be counted upon to outscore their opponents.  The ATS numbers aren't there for the Chiefs (1-4 ATS), but the Ravens covered in the last minute, and so did the Raiders...oh and they nearly beat Romosexual last week.  The Redskins haven't done anything really impressive, with losses to the Lions and Panthers who were previously unbeaten.  Let's make it three for three!!

Again, we love to jump on a team after a tough loss.  Not a demoralizing loss like the Titans, but one that a team can learn from.  The Texans D did not show up in the 1st half of the Arizona game, and they got annihilated.  However, the Texans fought back and should have won that game.  The Texans are a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They suck when they are supposed to dominate and surprise everyone when they are dogs.  They always seem to bounce back after a loss too. This is evident by their L, W, L, W, L win/loss column! The Bengals meanwhile are coming off a HUGE emotional victory.  Sidenote: we wish the best for Mike Zimmer and can’t imagine what the poor guy is going through.  The Bengals will still be celebrating last weeks victory up until this game.  They will not show up until the 3rd quarter, when it will likely be too late.  The Bengals have won one game by 7, and three by 3.  They do not win big!  After a huge win over the Steelers they went into overtime against the lowly Browns.  Similar situation here only with a much better opponent.  Grab the points!

The Raiders are terrible.  As much as bdoug hates to admit it, they're terrible.  They've been beaten by 20+ the last three weeks and there isn't anything good about them.  The offense is at the bottom of the league, the defense is 31st, Jamarcus is a turnover machine and the receivers couldn't catch a cab.  Philly is for real (huge surprise, we know) and they know what they need to do here.  We read a couple of quotes that were troubling from the Giants this week, saying that playing the Raiders was like a scrimmage, they had no fight in them, and were basically going through the motions.  Do you want a back a team like that?  Neither do we.  It's a big spread, but it'll be covered by halfway through the second quarter.

Saturday October 18, 2009 (1-4)  We need to regroup in College ball.  Still kicking ass in NFL.

This is the week Iowa goes down.  Iowa is a good team, but not 5-0 worthy.  They certainly surprised me with strong wins over Penn State and Arizona, however they play down to their opponents (a la Arkansas State and Northern Iowa).  We simply think Wisconsin is the better team.  According to the scoreboard the Badgers got killed by the Buckeyes last week, however they let up 2 kick returns for scores and a pick 6.  Wisconsin can run the ball and have the better QB, not to mention they are nasty at home!  Iowa’s luck finally runs out, and Wisconsin wins by 7.  All the public $$ is on Iowa, yet the line moved from Iowa -1 to Wisconsin -2.5/3.  Yeah, nice!  We got the right side.

Fade the Boilermakers, they have done absolutely nothing since we featured them in back to back weeks to start the season.  Sure they covered against Notre Dame, but they're so overrated it's not even funny.  Since losing to USC, the Buckeyes have won and covered 4 straight each time by at least two TDs.  We don't really like betting on Big Ten teams laying double digits, but this is an exception.  The Boilermakers are now 1-5 and spinning out of control and the Buckeyes seem focused at 5-1.  This one won't be close.

Despite 3 straight losses, we really like this Colorado State team.  Their O-line is solid, they play good D, and although their QB is a first year starter, he is a senior who knows the system.  CSU has strong wins @ Colorado and vs. Nevada.  Their loss at BYU was much closer than it looks, and the loss to Idaho doesn’t look that bad anymore (Vandals are 5-1).  TCU hasn’t beaten anyone spectacular and hasn’t crushed anyone besides Texas State and SMU.  TCU is a defensive team that does not run up the score…..and not to mention they have BYU on deck.  We would not be surprised if this game is decided by 7 or less.

The Buffs have covered a couple of straight against big time opponents on the road, in Morgantown against W. Virginia and at Texas.  Granted, it was a half point cover at Texas, but a cover is a cover to the wise gambler.  The Jayhawks meanwhile haven't covered their last two against powerhouses Iowa State and and Southern Miss.  Colorado is a tough place to play with the elevation, and especially after two tough road games, we think the Buffs will come to play here.  We also think that Kansas might be looking ahead to next week when they play Oklahoma at home.

We like MTSU over MSU because the T stands for tougher.  MSU turns the ball over a ton, and their defense (particularly their secondary) looked awful versus Houston.  MTSU laid a stinker on the road at Troy on national TV.  Well, playing on the road weeknights is very tough.  Expect a big bounce back effort from Dasher and the group with a long week to prepare for an SEC foe.  MTSU loves these games, and MSU may be looking past them (Florida on deck).  We expect an outright win from the mighty Sun Belt conference dog.

Thursday October 16, 2009 (1-0)

The Bulls are the "home" team for this one, with the game being played at Raymond James Stadium.  This is a matchup of two 5-0 teams that are pretty evenly matched with the winner having the inside track to the BCS bid and 17 million kajillion dollars.  Cincy has beaten the Bulls the last four years, and over the years has dominated the series.  Tony Pike and the 'Cats offense has been impressive with the spread attack.  The Bulls have a solid D that has kept each opponent to under 20 points.  The Cincy D switched from a 4-3 last year to a 3-4 this year and have also performed pretty well, limiting all their opponents to 20 points or less.  The 'Cats have also played well on the highway, winning at Corvallis earlier this year, which is widely regarded as a tough place to play.  We think the difference is the Bearcats offense, special teams, and coaching.  Brian Kelly has got this team on the road to not only respectability, but national recognition.

Tuesday October 13, 2009 (1-0)

Home underdog under the lights on national TV.  These are generally too easy.  This one is strange as the 1-3 Sun Belt team is favored over the 3-2 Sun Belt squad.  These teams are very similar, yet UL Monroe is a tad more balanced on offense.  Statistically their defenses are mirror images.  This will be a “Maroon-out” and the school is giving away $6,500 in prizes to ‘spirited fans’.  This should be a crazy one.  We think Ark State is favored solely on their close 3 point loss to undefeated Iowa.  In reality, Iowa was looking ahead, and Ark State scored in junk time.  Remember that Iowa plays down to their opponents as they almost lost to IAA Northern Iowa, yet beat good teams in Penn State and Michigan.  We say UL Monroe goes 3-0 in the Sun Belt Tuesday night.

Sunday October 11, 2009 (3-2)

                       

                        *Monster Play*

If it wasn't for a late Jake Delhomme pick-six, our monster plays would be 3-0 now.  Just sayin.  Each of these teams has shown that they're for real this year as each one could make an argument that a play at the end of the game kept them each from being undefeated.  This is a big divisional game as the winner will take command of the standings.  We like the Bengals here for a couple of reasons.  Their defense has been very good and Baltimore struggled against the pass rush last week when their LT went down.  We think the Ravens may come out a little flat after that emotional loss at NE.  The Cincy offense should be able to move the ball reasonably well since the Ravens D isn't what it used to be.  Nine points are way too many.

The Falcons have much better skill players and are coming off a bye week.  So, all signs point to the road team right?  Wrong.  The 49ers are a better TEAM, and have a better defense.  I find both those attributes stronger than flashy skill players.  Mike Singletary has his team focused and they will stick to his game plan: pound the rock with Coffee and play solid team defense.  We’ll take some Folgers in our cup and say the Niners stay undefeated, against the spread.

What have the Bills done to deserve being 6-point favorites?  Their offense has been turrible, with absolutely no vertical game with Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards.  Lynch is going to be taking touches away from Fred Jackson, and that's not a good thing.  The Browns showed some signs of life with Derek Anderson under center.  You may say, "yeah, but they just traded Braylon Edwards!"  Who cares.  He had zero catches last week and that was their best offensive game of the year.  The rookie Massaquoi will be the go-to WR and he'll do just fine.

Jake Delhomme sucks.  The Panthers are 0-3.  Remedy?  Bye Week.  John Fox is a solid coach and will get his team back on track, regardless of his QB.  We fully expect him to go back to the basics and pound the rock with his two stud RBs.  If the Panthers lose this game Steve Smith might kill a teammate.  Our other reason for backing the Panthers is their crappy opponent.  The Redskins are 2-2, with losses against the Lions and Giants.  The loss to the Giants was only by 6, but the score does not represent the beating they were getting the majority of the game.  Their two wins were by a COMBINED 5 points against the Rams and Bucs.  Yup, two wins against teams combined for an 0-8 record.  They will not beat this veteran winless team this time around.  Jim Zorn, say good bye to your job.

Seattle is usually a very tough place to play.  The talk is that Hasselbeck will be playing this week after being out the past two.  The Jags have played well the past two weeks, but we like the Seahawks here.  Having to travel 3,000 miles is never really good for a team, especially if they're playing a hungry team like the Hawks, who definitely don't want to fall to 1-4.  12th man in Seattle helps the Hawks get the win.  And EAS man Matt Hasselbeck.

Saturday October 10, 2009 (0-4)  Great day.

Mississippi St. loves to run the ball and Houston can't stop the run.  We just hope that the coaching staff realizes this and pounds it down the Cougars throat this weekend.  Houston laid an egg last week against UTEP after two big victories over Big 12 teams.  The fundamental difference between Big 12 and the SEC is that SEC has better defense.  Miss. St. has played decent at home the last two weeks despite losing both games (LSU by 4 in a game that they were very competitive and GTech by 11).  Both of those teams are far superior to Houston.  Dogs win this one.

Rivalry game against the #1 team in the country.  Huge target on Florida’s chest and God (Tebow) is beat up.  If he plays he could be timid and you know Les Miles will throw his D all over him.  This line seems ridiculously high for an LSU home game under the lights.  Something seems really wrong, and we are biting along with Joe Public.  These games always tend to be close in the regular season.  Should be a thriller with no more than a touchdown victory, either way.

The public is pouncing on Maryland.  Why?  Because they just squeaked out a surprise win against an overrated Clemson team that is known to have stinker games?  Maryland is not a good team, at all.  Their coach is looks like a drunk Louie Anderson after 3 buffet meals.  Wake Forest got embarassed @ Maryland last year, and we look for them to get their revenge big time.  We would not be surprised with a 20+ point win.  Also noteworthy is Maryland has had four straight road games.  Their last road game was a 52-13 loss @ crappy California.  Yeah, nice!

We think that this spread is a little high, even though the Eagles are 0-4 and have lost their starting QB for the year.  Their new QB, Kyle McMahon completed nearly 70% of his passes last week in a losing effort.  Eastern has beaten Central 4 of the last 5 years and the only Central win was in OT.  This is despite the fact that Eastern is usually one of the worst teams in the conference.  This is a big rivalry game that we think will stay within the number.

Monday October 5, 2009 (1-0)

No, we don't like Mega Douche but that doesn't mean you can't bet on him.  Rule #173 - just because you don't like a certain player or team, you shouldn't rule out betting on them.  Mega Douche came back for the two games against the Packers this year.  He seems to come through in moments like this with all the build up and media attention.  Remember a few years ago when his dad died and on Monday Night Football he threw for 6 TDs?  I'm not saying he'll throw for 6 TDs, although that would be friggin' sweet since he's on my fantasy team.  But Minny has the best RB in the game, a very solid defense and the crowd is going to be crazy for this Monday night game.  All signs point to Tuesday morning media BJs for Mega Douche.

Sunday October 4, 2009 (4-2)

            *Monster Play*

We lost a close one with the Ravens/Browns over 38.5 last week.  Stupid Mangina and Quinn.  Well, we will continue to ride Ravens over plays.  Bottom line is Flacco and the gang can score and want to push the ball.  Meanwhile with Rex Ryan gone the Ravens defense ain’t what she used to be.  Pats used to score a lot and this year they are settling for field goals.  Betting is not about what happened last week, but about forecasting.  We say the Pats get on track and start clicking on offense.  We know they’re defense isn’t anything special, so we see 50 points being scored in this one.  The Pats D is like a bad sandwich.....its missing Mayo (we apologize for the terrible joke).

Happy time in Detroit because the Lions won a game for the first time this decade.  OK, maybe it hasn't been that long but you get the idea.  The Kevin Smith will be a game time decision for the Lions and if he doesn't play, the Lions offense becomes more one-dimensional.  We’re not sure if the rookie Stafford will be up to that challenge against the Bears D.  The Bears have played some ugly football so far this year and we don't really like Jay Cutler.  The Bears won both matchups last year 34-7 and 27-23.  Matt Forte hasn't scored a touchdown this year and this just may be the week that he goes crazy, since the last time he faced this defense he rushed for 126 yards.

 

Classic battle of underrated versus overrated.  The public loves the Cowgirls, and we think they’re alright.  The Broncos are 3-0, but this is a big step up in class for them.  We think they know that and show up big time.  This is the week Knowshon Moreno is given 20 carries and shows us why the Donkeys picked him.  Kyle Orton is very mediocre, but so is the Cowboy secondary.  Denver keeps this a low scoring game and an win outright.

Some serious line movement on this game too, which opened at 4 and is now 6.5.  Everyone probably thinks that the champs can't lose three in a row so they're going to come out fired up.  Well, that's probably right, but the Chargers always play the Steelers tough and this will be a close game decided in the 4th quarter.  The Steelers haven't covered a spread yet this year, and we don't see them beating the Chargers by a TD.  These teams played twice last year, including once in the playoffs, and the Steelers won both times, so perhaps some revenge is in order.  The key to the victories was time of possession as they held the ball for 36+ minutes each game.  They don't have a dominant running game this year and won't be able to grind out long drives this time around.  The Chargers have a great deep threat in the Rivers-Vincent Jackson combo to torch the Steelers without Troy "Mr. Head and Shoulders" Polamalu.

Miami returns home after a tough spot in San Diego after a disappointing loss to Indy.  The 0-3 Phins need this win more than the 1-2 Bills.  I don’t care if Marshawn Lynch is coming back because Fred jackson is better anyways.  I also don’t care about Chad Pennington being out because I see the team rising to the occasion and making the debut easier for Mr. Henne.  Look for Ronnie Brown and Bob Marley to run wild.  Lots of people are jumping on the Bills and we don’t see why.  Their coach isn’t that great and TO is about to have a hissy fit and I can guarantee you he won’t support his “quartaback....teammate” this time.

I was at the Raiders Broncos game last week, in the 8th row.  I personally saw just how terrible they looked.  Oakland looked like a high school team.  So why am I betting on them?  Because the Raiders do well when they aren’t supposed to and suck balls when they are supposed to win.  NFL teams generally perform well after an embarrassing loss.  Also, the Raiders play better on the road because at home Jamarcus ‘Fat Albert’ Russell has the crowd booing him.  The Raiders won 3 out of their 5 total wins last year on the road.  Houston meanwhile has such an awful defense that they should not be 9 point favorites against anyone!  If the Raiders are smart they give Michael Bush the rock 20 times and take this game and surprise everyone.  Hey the Raiders upset the Texans last year as 9 point dogs.

Saturday October 3, 2009 (3-4)

Florida Atlantic is sitting at 0-3 and really need this win.  Wyoming meanwhile is coming off a great conference win at home versus UNLV.  FAU can pass against anyone, and Wyoming’s weakness is pass D.  Situationally this could not be better.  FAU needs the win and gets a team making the long travel after a big win.  Lay the points!

Notre Dame is the most overrated team in the country with the most overrated/overweight coach in the country.  Note:  Kansas and

Maryland also have really fat coaches, but no one says they're great, hence Charlie "I'm getting gastric bypass surgery and then I'll gain all the weight back" Weis is the most overrated/overweight.  Glad we cleared that up.  Jimmy Clausen isn't 100% and let's not forget that two weeks ago the Huskies shocked the college football world and upset USC.  They predictably lost their next game (classic letdown) and are now focused again to prove that they're for real.  Jake Locker looks extremely comfortable in Steve Sarkisian's offense and when he takes off with the ball, he can flat out fly, so he'll give the Irish fits.  Don't be shocked if the Huskies pull another one out of the hat.

Cal got straight up embarrassed!  You really think they are going to roll over after that?  Negative, good teams bounce back.  This team was likely looking ahead to this game, just like Michigan and Mich. State in their games.  USC is not that good and do not deserve to be 5 point favorites on the road....especially against a mad team looking to redeem themselves.

I like what I've seen from Syracuse this year.  They're playing with some pride on the defensive side of the ball, and even though Greg Paulus hasn't played QB in 4 years, he looks like a QB on game day, which is more than I originally thought when it was announced he'd be the starter.  They've now won 2 in a row and are gaining more and more confidence.  This is Syracuse's homecoming and I fully expect the Carrier Dome to be rocking with fans decked out in Orange supporting their team.  South Florida is coming off a big win against FSU, so this may be a letdown for them.  The Bulls rely heavily on the run and so far this year, that has been a strength for the Orange allowing just 2.7 yards per carry.  Grab the points with the live home dog!

This is the Badgers first road game of the year.  Does it not seem like all Big 10 schools have easy schedules?  The Gophers will want this one bad as the Badgers have owned them in recent years.  Minnesota has one of my favorite college fball players in Eric Decker.  Wisconsin is coming off a nice win over Michigan State and have Ohio State on deck.  Gophers win back the Paul Bunyan axe with a nice win in their brand new beautiful stadium

I’m just going to make a wager on all the obscure Florida colleges.  UL Monroe averages 184 rushing yards per game, and FIU allows 214 rushing yards per game.  Can you say ball control?  UL Monroe rolls over FIU in their homecoming game.

This line opened at 3.5 and has gone down to 2 in some spots, so it looks like the money is coming in on Chair Force.  There's going to be a lot of running in this game as each team averages over 240 yards per game on the ground.  Air Force has been the beneficiary of turnovers this year as they've forced 15 through 4 games and only coughed it up twice.  Their 3-1 record reflects the severe imbalance in the turnover battle.  Navy opened the year almost upsetting Ohio State in the Horseshoe DESPITE committing three turnovers.  They've taken much better care of the ball since then and are 2-1 as a result.  Navy has won the last two meetings in '08 and '07 and is 13-4 ATS vs. Air Force since '92.  Short home fav looks like the way to go here.