Wednesday September 30, 2009 (1-0)

Home team, weeknight, under the lights, with the public betting on Hawaii.  Yet, the line has gone up to 5 in some spots.  This is a spot play as both teams are average at best.  Hawaii is on back to back home games and must make a long trip on a short week.  Lousiana will pass all over the awful Hawaii D, while LA Tech should be able to contain Hawaii’s potent pass attack.  LA Techs coach has encouraged students to come out in all red.  RED-OUT!  Take the home fav!

Monday September 28, 2009 (0-1)

   

                *Monster Play*

Panthers need a win like you need our awesome picks.  Quick plug-in:  Our football picks are 23-12 year to date.  Anyways, the Panthers still have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL in DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart.  Hopefully they use the crap out of them and keep Delhomme from doing something stupid.  The Cowgirls are overrated again....go figure!  They should win this game after the embarassing loss at their new stadium, but the Panthers will not roll over.  The Panthers have a bye week next week to rest up, so they will give everything they got.  Meanwhile, the Cowgirls are coming off a short week.  Grab the mucho points now!

Sunday September 27, 2009 (3-1)

As you can see, we are riding this 49er team, and why not?  Great defense, can run the ball, and do not turn the ball over.  Minnesota plays Green Bay next week.  Think Mega-Douche and the gang aren’t looking forward to that matchup?  These two teams are very similar and I just don’t see a 7 point difference between the two.  Yes, Adrian Peterson could ruin my plans, but we’ll take our shot.  Minnesota has played NOBODY this year....lets see how they perform against a much better, and very underrated 49er team.

Baltimore can flat out score and they love to throw the ball this year.  Flacco is legit.  Ray Rice is legit.  McGahee still has some juice!  The Browns are desperate for a win, and maybe, just maybe Brady Quinn will connect with Braylon this week.  The Browns still use twinkle toes Jamal Lewis for some reason.  For a big dude, he really sucks at hitting a hole....thats what she said.  He is a bitch.  Maybe they use their better RBs this week.  Regardless, the Baltimore Defense is not what they used to be.  Baltimore let up 24 points to the Chiefs with Brody Croyle at QB.  The Raiders held the Chiefs (with Cassell) to 10 points!  Baltimore also let up 26 points to San Diego, including some really big plays.  If Cleveland scores 14 points, this is going over. Woo woo!

I try not to let my homerism persuade my bets, I really do.  I’m still not sure what to make of the spread.  Usually four points is an indication to me that the oddsmakers aren’t sure what to make of the game either.  Coming off a loss, I’m not betting against The Hooded One and Mr. Bundchen.  They’ll come out focused and execute a good game plan.  Not to discount the Falcons, Matt Ryan has looked pretty good this year, and he went to BC, so this is his return to Mass.  He’s in for a rude welcome.

Drew Brees is toying with NFL defenses.  He picked apart the Lions, which is as hard as an 80-year old with ED, but then he played around with the Eagles, considered to be a top 5 defense by many.  They’ve scored 45+ in both games.  The Bills played the Pats tight and took care of the Bucs, so they’ve got some confidence coming in.  I just don’t see the Saints struggling against a defense that couldn’t get any pressure on Tom Brady who was allowed to complete 70% of his passes.  If that happens to Brees, they’ll put up 45 again.

Saturday September 26, 2009 (1-4)

Colorado State is a very solid team.  They have playmakers at the WR position, a tough D, the most experienced Mountain West O-line, and a decent first year starter senior QB.  BYU’s Mormon power is gone!  The white boys got exposed by Florida State and I look for a Debbie Downer performance.  CSU lost to BYU by 3 last year. Take the points in the scrappy underdog.

Illinois has not looked impressive, but they always play Ohio State tough.  Juice Williams is supposed to be healthy and Illinois is coming off a bye week.  I look for them to get things moving after a couple off weeks.  Ohio State comes into this game off a nice shutout over Toledo.  Looks like they were pissed about the USC loss and came out fighting.  Glad they got that out of the way, now take the 14 points in this conference game.

Air Force owns San Diego State, period.  Air Force is a very solid team that held their own against Minnesota 2 weeks ago.  Air Force has Navy ahead, but I think they will use this game as a tune up.  Air Force is always good at home, and will be pumped to come back after an easy road win to get conference play started.  SDSU is going nowhere this year.  Air Force by 20.

I’m slightly confused here.  Because the Vols only lost by ten to the Gators all of a sudden makes them a powerhouse and therefore a 23 point favorite?  Well, I’ll bite.  Bobcats are 2-1 so far this year with wins over North Texas (who suprised a lot of people by beating Ball State) and Cal Poly.  The Ohio defense has struggled slightly against the run, allowing 200+ in two of their three games.  But Cal Poly is an option offense and all they did was run.  Take out the couple of long runs they gave up to Connecticutt, and they held the opposition to less than 4 YPC, not so bad.  Based on the Volunteers strength in the running game and turrible QB play, I expect some conservative play calling.  And I Don’t think the Vols will have their heads completely in this game.  Since their loss to the Gators last week, Lame Kiffin has been in a war of words with Urban Meyer and they play Auburn next week.  I don’t see them being up for this one.  Lane Kiffin is a little boy.

The Beavers have beat the WIldcats each of the last 3 years (12-5 ATS last 17), so the seniors certainly want to keep the streak alive on their home turf.  Nonetheless, I expect a spirited effort from the Beavers after losing to Cincinnati at home last week.  If they can run the ball with the Rodgers brothers and contain the Wildcats running game, they should be in good shape.  The Beavers have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in each of their last 3 games, so this game should be a good test.  And I wasn’t impressed with the Wildcats QB last week.  Short home fav looks like the way to go.

Thursday September 24, 2009 (1-0)

Ole Miss is a very good team.  However, they have been overrated all year and all offseason.  ESPN cover pages, number 4 ranking, etc.. They have played Memphis and SE Louisiana this year.  Big timers!  Big step up in class here vs. South Carolina, yet the line is only 3?  Trap game!  Home underdogs on a weeknight prime-time spot are very profitable.  Take the points with the Steve Spurriers.  P.S.  South Carolina beat the amazing Jevan Snead led Rebels last year, they’re not afraid.

Sunday September 20, 2009 (5-0)

Ride this 49er team until the linesmakers and public catch up.  The win @ Arizona was no fluke.  In fact we saw it coming as we listed it a Monster Play.  They play great defense and have really bought into Singletary.  I think it was when he dropped his pants.  Either that or he cloned himself 53 times and gave them all uniforms.  $$ is coming in on Seattle due to their 28-0 beating off the Rams.  Well, to me beating the Rams means nothing.  Seattles LBs and O-Line are banged up bad.  Hasselbeck looked a bit rusty.  He needs to drink more EAS before I trust him.  Julius Jones goes down SO easy.  He stops his legs as soon as their is contact.  However, he racked up a ton of yards because of huge holes created in the terrible St.Louis front.  Take the short home fav!

Good teams bounce back big, and thats what we’re looking for here.  Houston got embarrassed at home so expect a strong effort.  Thats what we look for in the NFL as these guys are getting paid so you never know if they plan to truly play.  After a big loss, they generally do.  Slaton won’t get much yards, but I expect Andre the Giant to get his, just like Santonio last week.  Money is coming in on the Titans yet the line dropped from 7 to 6.5.

Chargers got punched in the mouth Monday @ the Raiders.  They looked soft, and Philip Rivers is still a pansy, although good at throwing the ball.  I wanted to kill him when he taunted Gerard Warren and threw the ball at him, then had the nerve to act like he did nothing!  Anyways, if the Raiders can run all over them, so can Ray Rice and the Ravens.  Antonio Cromarte is too tall and stiff to be a CB.  Flacco will have a field day, and the Ravens D will contain Sproles and Cry Baby (LT).  The Chargers O-line is beat up and Castillo was having some injury issues during the game.  And the main reason why the Chargers will suck it up:  Norv Turner.  He has been a terrible head coach wherever he’s gone, yet somebody always hires him!  He is a coordinator and not a motivator.  Ravens win outright.

Based on last week's games, it looks like this might be a defensive struggle, with points at a premium so I also like the under.  I think the points are probably a better side to go with.  Bengals have a good defense that is completely underrated.  They were about 15 seconds away from winning that game last week if not for the miracle tip drill.  This line just seems a little too high.

Whether or not McNabb plays, I like the Saints here.  But he probably won't play, so I like the Saints even more.  If they're going to be taken seriously, then they have to beat the big boys, and the Eagles certainly qualify as the big boys.  A big road win is just what this team needs to prove to everyone that they're for real.  Drew Brees is a machine that can pick apart any defense.

Saturday September 19, 2009 (2-3)

Steve Sarkisian vs. his old team.  He knows Pete Carroll well so there’s an advantage right off the bat.  Washington has looked much improved under Sarkisian, and Jake Locker has lost a bunch of weight so he’s faster than he was last year. Meanwhile USC is coming off a huge emotional victory.  Their Frosh QB was so gitty and happy after that win....he’s also hurt and may not play this one.  If he doesn’t obviously a new youngin’ needs to step in.  If he can play, I don’t care because I do not find him impressive.  After the OSU game the commentators and ESPN were blowing him.  OMG, he handled it so well and led them on the last drive.  His running backs took care of EVERYTHING.  He Kyle Orton’ed the game.  He did not do anything impressive.  Take the points in what Washington might consider their Super Bowl.

Oh the Big Ten.  Only teams I like in the Big Ten are Michigan and Purdue.  The rest are overrated, and Michigan is getting there.  Iowa is coming off a win over their in state rival and have Penn State on deck.  This game against a PAC 10 foe means nothing to them.  Arizona meanwhile has better athletes and this is their first true test.  The public is all over Iowa, yet the line has moved down to 5 in some spots.  This is all public perception after the big win over Iowa State.  Does Joe Schmoe remember Iowa almost lost to IAA Northern Iowa??  I’m taking the points.

I really like MTSU this year.  They return their entire O-line, and an athletic QB.  Maryland just isn’t that good this year.  They have no freaks like the past; i.e. Shawn Merriman, Vernon Davis, Darrius Heyward-Bey.  Maryland historically plays down to their opponent and wins one big one a year against a ranked team.  This is a revenge situation for Maryland but I will stick with the points and take the team with a QB that torched the Terps last year.

This game is being played on a neutral site, so the horseshoe can't intimidate Toledo, who has played ok so far this year with a win against Colorado last week after losing to Purdue week 1.  The Buckeyes are coming off a tough loss to USC, basically crushing their National Title hopes.  They might not even realize that they're playing a game until halftime.  Not only that, but we've got contrasting styles in this game.  Toledo scores a ton and has no defense, Ohio St. has a good defense and a conservative offense.  OSU couldn't cover the number against Navy, how are they going to contain Toledo who has averaged 500 YPG of offense.  It shouldn't be too tough for the Rockets to keep this within 3 touchdowns.

Did I learn my lesson with Rutgers?  Of course I did.  If they play a good team, stay away, if they play bums...expect a blowout.  Florida International gave up 275 yards on the ground to Bama, and Rutgers loves to run the ball with 245 of 'em last week against Howard.  FIU's pass defense isn't that stout either, since they gave up 14 straight completions last week too.  RUTGERS!!

Thursday September 17, 2009  (0-1)

Two very similar teams in the same conference.  I’m taking the points.  Miami looked great @ Florida State, but the hype will get to them.  After just one game people are talking about how this is the Miami of old.  Well, maybe it could be, but we get a nice line with a team who is returning 15 starters from last years squad and has owned the series as of late.  Don’t forget Miami gave up 34 points in the FSU matchup.  Miami of old?  Not yet.  Harris is a good QB, but his ball seems to float in the air too long and he weighs about 100 pounds.  GT plays decent D and loves to slow the game down with the running attack.  Betting against the home team under the lights on a weeknight is tough, but I see this as a field goal game.

Monday September 14, 2009 (0-1)

The long awaited return of Tom Brady to the lineup.  Woohoo!  Watch Brady and Moss play catch all night and make the Buffalo defense look silly.  Plus the Bills first team offense didn't score a touchdown at all in the preseason. And they fired their offensive coordinator and gave it to a guy that has never held the job.  Throw in the fact that the Pats have absolutely owned the Bills recently (5-0 ATS last 5 and 11-0 SU overall).  This should work out well...for ME!!

Sunday September 13, 2009 (2-1)

                *Monster Play*

It would really surprise me if the Niners don't cover.  They played their asses off for Mike Singletary last year and you can tell that they respect him as a coach.  The like to play defensive minded football games, and don't take big risks.  The Cardinals are the opposite, they like to throw the ball around and score lots of points.  I think a Super Bowl hangover is in order (Super Bowl losers 3-12 ATS in the first game following season).  And Kurt Warner is 38 coming off hip surgery.  With the public on the Cardinals the line hasn’t budged.  Grab dem points.

This is the bet I liked looking at the lines a month ago.  I have been a big fan of the Texans the last 2 years and if they will ever “break out” this is the year.  The Jets will have Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis suspended for this matchup.  Houston has a great home record, and a rookie QB is starting for the Jets.  The Jets will improve under Rex Ryan, but asking them to travel to Houston with a rookie QB and beat a solid squad is too tough.

The Ravens proved last year that they can score.  They are not just a defensive team.  We HATE double digit favorites in the NFL, but we are going to take a chance here.  The Chiefs may be the worst team in the NFL.  They have a sorry O line, roughed up QB, and no defense.  This will be Ray Rice’s coming out party.  Look for 170 rushing yards out of the Ravens today.

Other Leans:  Redskins +6.5, Seahawks -8, Browns +4.

Saturday September 12, 2009  (4-1)

This line opened at -4.5 and fallen to -3 because 90% of the public has jumped on Air Force.  Air Force is coming off a 72-0 victory but it was Nichols State!!  I hate the Big Ten, but any Big Ten team is a million times better than Nichols State!  Minnesota meanwhile struggled to get a win @ Syracuse.  Well, Syracuse looks like a fighting team this year so don’t look to deep into that tough victory.  Lay the points with the more athletic team playing their home opener....in a new stadium.

Both these teams are not very good, but I will take the small home favorite versus a team that will be emotionally drained after coming off a Sunday night loss to rival Ole Miss.  Memphis got lucky and hung in that game till the last 6 minutes and shit blew up quick!  Memphis gave everything they had in that game.  MTSU returns 10 offensive starters, including all 5 O lineman.  New QB, but he got his rust off @ Clemson, who only outgained MTSU by 62 yards!  The fans are also participating in a “Blackout”.  Take the home team now!

Everyone is on TCU yet the line has dropped from -12 to -10.5 in some spots.  Smells fishy.  Although Virginia is pathetic, something tells me they can keep this within 10 after being EMBARRASSED by William & Mary.  This game will be nationally televised.  Look for maximum effort out of the Cavs and a possible upset.  This line is all public perception after a bad loss.....don’t buy in.

The Orange put up a hell of a fight last week against Minnesota, losing in overtime.  Penn St. rolled over Akron 31-7.  So why Syracuse?  The Orange fought back from down 14-3 early in that game to take the lead and showed some pride on defense throughout with a couple of stuffs.  Penn St. outscored Akron 31-0 in the first half and got lazy in the second.  I think the Orange stay within the number.

This line seemed a little high to me.  The Ducks didn't show much on the offensive side of the ball last week while Purdue racked up 52 points.  I know that the expectations are for the Ducks to be a top team in the Pac-10 (overrated), but I liked what I saw from the Boilermakers last week while I didn't like what the Ducks were doing really at all.  Meanwhile the Ducks are dealing with drama with the Blount bout.

Friday September 11, 2009 (1-0)

Big conference versus small conference, yes, but the Buffs plain suck.  This is a play against the Buffs who should be at an all time emotional low after losing big to their instate rivals.  Toledo fought hard against a decent Purdue team, while the Buffs disappointed their home crowd with terrible QB play, defense, and coaching.  Dan Hawkins and his son need to leave!

Thursday September 10, 2009 (2-0)

The Titans had the best record in the league last year based on a power running game and a stout defense.  They played the Steelers the next to the last game of the season and won 31-14.  Both teams are basically the same.  The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth, but added some receivers to help out Kerry Collins and they still have a few Pro Bowlers on the defensive side of the ball.  They are traditionally quick starters, including a 10-0 start to the season last year and 7-1 ATS the last three Septembers.  I think that the Steelers may be slightly over valued here since they won the Super Bowl, but remember if Santonio Holmes hadn't caught that ball in the final seconds of the Super Bowl, the Cardinals would have won that game.  The safe play here is to grab the points between these two and expect a slug fest from the opening kick.  God I love the NFL!

Both of these teams return at least 4 of their Offensive lineman.  I see both lines being able to control the line of scrimmage.  Georgia Tech has a small D-line that could be pushed around.  They will be forced to blitz a lot which could force a pick 6, or an easy open score for Clemson.  CJ Spiller may be limited so I expect Clemson to throw often to keep Georgia Techs triple option from using up all the clock.  GT will score on at least 1 big TD pass because they bore the shit out of teams with their eleventy billion runs.  Lots of money coming in on the over, but I see a close game with a lot of clock stopage at the end.  Take the over.

Monday September 7, 2009.  Happy Labor Day (0-1)

Cincy has owned this match-up the last few years, but I'm looking for things to change.  Rutgers closed out last season with 7 straight wins and have some momentum coming into the season.  They return their entire offensive line and top 3 running backs from last year.  Cincy is installing a different base defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and only has one returning starter from last year.  There may be some epic debaclation in this game.

Sunday September 6, 2009 (1-1)

Going with the underdogs today.  Ole Miss is a very solid team, however they are also extremely overrated by the public due to ESPN licking their balls.  This is a bit of a rivalry and could be some weather concerns.  About 80% of the public is on Ole Miss with the line only going up 1-2 points.  We’ll take our shot with the big home dog on national TV.

Again, going with the dog in a rivalry game.  Both these teams have a lot of question marks, so we do not feel any should be a big favorite.  These games have played tight in Folsum Field.  Colorado State is breaking in a new QB, but Colorado is breaking in an average QB with average experience.  The public is pounding the Buffs right now.  Take the points in this heated rivalry.

Saturday September 5, 2009 (4-2)

SEC vs. MAC.  Neutral field, although it is in Ohio, so advantage Miami.  Ohio loses three starting LBs and plays in a much weaker conference.  Kentucky should improve their QB play with Hartline having more experience.  Miami of Ohio was a hot week 1 pick last year and they sucked.                 

Kentucky started last year 4-0.  I see another hot start.

SEC vs. ACC.  Better Defense, better offense.  I hate watching VA Tech and always think they are over rated.  However, they have screwed me in

the past, so who knows.  VA Tech has an NC State like offense.  I see Alabama keeping them to less than 13 points.

What has Michigan done to be a double digit favorite?  Yes they will improve in the 2nd year of Rodriguez, but until I see it, I’ll bet against them.

Western Michigan has a legit QB in Heller, who could be a late round pick in the NFL draft.  This is a semi-rivalry, so I see this one playing close.

Home dog looking to make a big start to the season.  Ohio upset Pitt last year and almost Ohio State.  Don’t be fooled by their record, they can

hang with the bigger conferences.  Returning their QB along with 6 others on O and 7 D starters from last year.  UConn will be decent, but lost

Donald Brown who was about 65% of their offense last year.

Purdue -10 vs. Toledo W

Purdue has got a good defense, especially up front and in the secondary.  Their offense isn't going to set the world on fire, but a 5th year senior taking snaps and a decent running game.  10 is somewhat a big number, so you may prefer looking to the under at 50.5.

Mizzou has won the last two years in a row.  Yeah, they lost Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin but who cares.  Juice Williams is over rated and so is the Big Ten.  I know this goes directly against what I said in the previous pick with Purdue, but gambling is about feeling too.  The game is actually being played closer to the Mizzou campus than Illinois.  Grab the points.

Friday September 4, 2009 (1-0)

Tulane does not score a lot.  Tulsa typically does.  However they have a new QB, new RB, and new Offensive Coordinator.  Based on the games last night, we can look to see a lot of unders in week 1.  Teams just won’t click on Offense right away.  Meanwhile, both teams return at least half of their D from last year.  Play this one under the inflated total.

Thursday September 3, 2009 (1-1)

Happy Birthday Mom!

Not a huge fan of the Thursday Picks, but here we go:

Statement game for NC State.  USC beat them up last year but Russell Wilson was knocked out and the majority of the points came late.  Wilson is a stud and I’ll take him with the home crowd over the poor USC QB play.

Ball State getting way too much respect based on last years results.  They lost much of their O including their QB, and not to mention head coach.

The Mean Green suck, but they will definitely win more than 1 game this year.  They make a change at QB (coaches son), which should lead to

more points.  Miquale Lewis is a great runner and could screw up my plans.  Still, I’m going to bet the dog and hope the public is wrong

Leans Toward Orgeon as well.  Lots of people jumping on Troy -7.  I’m passing.

Wednesday - Day Off

Tuesday September 1, 2009 (W, L, +0 Units)